Week 6 sec picks and predictions
By: Grant Poarch
This week’s prediction article will be a lot shorter than normal as only 11 of the 14 SEC teams are in action this week. That being said, we need to be surgical to make this week a good one. Last week, I went 5-2 on the money line and 3-4 on the spread. That brings my overall record to 43-12 on the money line and 17-25 on the spread. The story of the year for me prediciting these games is follow me on the money line and fade me on the spread. You know what they say, knowing a wrong pick is just as valuable as knowing the right pick. So, you’re welcome. I’m not sure anyone has actually said what I said two sentences ago, but I’ll roll with it. With that said, tail me at your benefit and fade me at your expense. The odds listed are provided by DraftKings.
#23 LSU (-5.5) @ #21 Missouri, O/U 63.5, 12:00PM EST, ESPN
LSU’s defensive struggles have been the story in their two losses thus far. If Mizzou moves the ball like Florida State and Ole Miss did on LSU, I would be shocked. This is a prove-it game for Missouri as their schedule has had teams that are all currently unranked. They got screwed by having one of the biggest games there in years happening at noon. That will greatly benefit LSU. While Missouri is not quite the best environment LSU will be going to, Missouri should be fired up for this one but not as much as they could have been if the game was at night.
Picking this game is weird because of the line. You would think that Missouri would be favored since they are undefeated and Ole Miss just put up 55 on LSU to give them their second loss. However, Vegas wasn’t built on winners. LSU, on paper, is the much better team in this matchup. If Jayden Daniels can take care of the football, LSU will have enough to outpace Missouri. Missouri’s defense doesn’t scare me enough to stray away from LSU in this game. Their offense doesn’t seem to be better than LSU’s either. So, not with a lot of confidence, I going with the Tigers of LSU.
Prediction: LSU wins, LSU covers -5.5
Western Michigan @ Mississippi State (-20.5, O/U 55.5), 12:00PM EST, SECN
I don’t see much of a contest in this one. While Mississippi State has lost three games in a row, don’t count on them making it four consecutive losses. They are far better than Western Michigan and will show as such in a get-right game for Hail State.
In the losses to LSU and Alabama, Will Rogers was not himself. Tomorrow, we should see the version of Rogers that appears like 2022. There is no one in the Western Michigan secondary that is going to make an impact on Rogers to turn the ball over. If he can take care of the ball, which he will, Mississippi State will win this game easily.
This line is weird because you would think a SEC team would be favored by a lot more when they face a team like Western Michigan. It seems like a trap line to take Mississippi State and the points but consider me trapped.
Prediction: Mississippi State wins, Mississippi State covers -20.5
#11 Alabama (-2.5) @ Texas A&M, O/U 46, 3:30PM EST, CBS
This line raised my eyebrow to say the least. I know Texas A&M has pushed Alabama to the wire several times in recent memory, but the Aggies are prone to mess ups. I can easily see Texas A&M embarrassing themselves in this one.
In their best test of the season, the Aggies gave up 48 points to Miami. Since then, though, they have looked good in convincing wins over Auburn and Arkansas. However, this is Alabama we are talking about. Do y’all really think Saban is going to lose to Texas A&M in a virtual playoff elimination game? I would be stunned if that were to happen.
I see the Alabama defense flexing their muscle and making Max Johnson turn the ball over at least twice in inopportune moments to give the Tide the edge when all is said and done.
Prediction: Alabama wins, Alabama covers -2.5
Vanderbilt @ Florida (-18.5, O/U 51.5), 4:00PM EST, SECN
A year ago, Vanderbilt won this game and in response their students “stormed” the field in a single file line. If you don’t think that drove Florida and their fans insane you need to go to the doctor as soon as possible.
Although Florida came back to Earth last week in their 33-14 loss to Kentucky in Lexington, expect the Gators to pour it on the Commodores. Vanderbilt, since starting the year 2-0, has four games in a row. The only game in the losing streak they didn’t lose by multiple possessions was against UNLV. If you read that last sentence you should understand that Vanderbilt is not a good football team. That will show itself in the Swamp on Saturday afternoon. Take the Gators in a revenge game.
Prediction: Florida wins, Florida covers -18.5
#20 Kentucky @ #1 Georgia (-14.5, O/U 47.5), 7:00PM EST, ESPN
I don’t believe I have picked a Georgia spread correctly all year long. So, take this analysis with a grain of salt. First off, Kentucky is the most physical team that Georgia will play this year. Georgia’s defense better be ready for the running game. Last week, Kentucky RB Ray Davis rushed for 280 yards and four touchdowns. Of those 280 yards, over 200 of them occurred in the first half. With Georgia’s struggles early on in games, they better wake up or they will find themselves behind early.
To me, it almost looks like Georgia has not been trying at the beginning of games. I just don’t believe that South Carolina and Auburn had any business hanging with the Bulldogs. Kentucky seems to be a better team than both of those teams, so count on Georgia showing up early and often in this game. Despite Georgia’s defensive struggles at times, they will not allow Kentucky to run on them the way the Wildcats ran all over Florida.
Georgia will win the game. So, there’s my money line pick. As for my spread pick, I have gone back and forth on this game. Take the opposite of me, but I will be taking Georgia.
Prediction: Georgia wins, Georgia covers -14.5
Arkansas @ #16 Ole Miss (-12.5, O/U 62.5), 7:30PM EST, SECN
These two teams could not be coming into this game in any different spirits. Arkansas has lost three games in a row and fans are calling for Sam Pittman’s job. Ole Miss just upset LSU and fans stormed the field after the game ended. This could easily be a letdown spot for the Rebels after last week’s emotional win.
As for the Hogs, they played extremely well in their only true road test of the year when they came just short of beating LSU in Baton Rouge. Although they are 2-3, Arkansas is better than their record indicates they are. I see them taking advantage of Ole Miss’ high from a week ago and keeping this one closer than most people think.
In the end, Ole Miss will come out on top. Jaxson Dart will have yet another field day and K.J. Jefferson won’t have enough to get the Hogs to pull the upset. Although there are other better games than this one at the time, my eyes will definitely be paying attention to the score of this one.
Prediction: Ole Miss wins, Arkansas covers +12.5