Week 5 NFL Picks
By: Grant Poarch
I guess I’m starting to heat up as last week I went 11-5 on the money line and 9-7 on the spread. That brings my record this season to 42-22 on the money line and 33-31 on the spread. After the first two weeks, especially on the spread, it wasn’t looking as good as it should. Now, I will continue to make good picks for y’all since last week was another litmus test for all of the teams. Continuing from the last two weeks, this week will be dominant. So, lock in while you can. With that said, fade me at your own risk and tail me at your benefit. The odds listed are provided by DraftKings.
10/5 (TNF): Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders (-6, O/U 44.5), 8:15PM EST, Prime Video
A week ago, the Bears looked to be well on their way to their first win as they were up 28-7 on the Broncos. In Chicago fashion, they blew it. Although Justin Fields did have two turnovers, he had an outstanding game overall as he threw for 335 yards and four touchdowns.
This week don’t expect Fields to have similar success. Washington is a solid team who just pushed Philadelphia into overtime and if it wasn’t for a forearm preventing Terry McLaurin from reeling in a huge catch on third down in overtime which would’ve likely set up the game winning field goal for the Commanders.
Beyond the on field play which shows Washington as the far better team, the statistics tell us that Chicago is 0-3-1 against the spread. So, that makes my job easy.
Prediction: Washington wins, Washington covers -6
10/8 (International Series, London): Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills (-5, O/U 48), 9:30AM EST, NFL Network
Jacksonville doesn’t have a big win yet this season, but they certainly can get one across the pond. That said, Buffalo is not here to play around. Following a stunning loss to the Aaron Rodgers less Jets in week one, the Bills have dominated the competition.
In this one, will Jacksonville be able to either slow down Josh Allen or keep up with him? The Jaguars are a good team, but they won’t be able to do either one of those things with Buffalo being so hot right now.
Even though this is the early game on Sunday, it is definitely worth getting up for a Trevor Lawrence vs Josh Allen QB matchup.
Prediction: Buffalo wins, Buffalo covers -5
10/8: New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots (-1, O/U 40), 1PM EST, CBS
I know I don’t put out predictions on the total, but the under is the play in this one. New Orleans hasn’t scored 20 points in a game yet this season, but they are 2-2. This is a big thanks to their defense. The Patriots seem to be built in a similar way with the defense carrying the team.
A week ago, both teams were dismantled on both sides of the ball. This game is likely to be an ugly one. This game is a flip for me, but I don’t feel good in this game as a Saints fan. On top of that, the Saints have yet to cover a spread this season.
Prediction: New England wins, New England covers -1
10/8: Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons (-1.5, O/U 41), 1PM EST, FOX
No doubt Atlanta is a much better team at home than they are on the road. In the first two weeks, they beat the Panthers soundly and had a nice comeback against the Packers. Since then, the Falcons have looked like the team we thought they might be.
After being tested against the Lions and the Jaguars, the Falcons showed to be weak when the game was on the shoulders of Desmond Ridder. This week, Ridder is going to have to show up for Atlanta to have a chance as C.J. Stroud has been far better than expectations and had led the Texans to upset wins over both the Jaguars and Steelers.
I don’t see Ridder keeping up with Stroud, so look for the underdogs to come out on top.
Prediction: Houston wins, Houston covers +1.5
10/8: Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions (-10, O/U 44.5), 1PM EST, FOX
This one will be another poor loss for the Panthers. The Lions have looked very good this year and will continue to roll. To make things easier for bettors, the Panthers have not covered a spread this year.
The growing pains are sure to continue for the Panthers and having this game on the road will not help in any way. Since Bryce Young was injured and missed the Seattle game, this will be his hardest road test yet in his young career. While he might do well at times, the team will not.
Prediction: Detroit wins, Detroit covers -10
10/8: Tennessee Titans (-2) @ Indianapolis Colts, O/U 43, 1PM EST, CBS
If someone can figure out whether the Titans are good, that would be great. Last week, they destroyed the Bengals 27-3. Before then, they had two losses where they didn’t score a touchdown. On the other hand, I think I have a better idea about the Colts. This is a team that was supposed to be bad but has shown up thus far. Prior to the season, I was down on Anthony Richardson. So far, he has done nothing but prove the haters wrong.
In this one, I see the Titans being able to slow Richardson down and being effective in the running game. Derrick Henry should have a big day here and give the Titans a much-needed divisional win.
Prediction: Tennessee wins, Tennessee covers -2
10/8: New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins (-11, O/U 48.5), 1PM EST, FOX
This one could get ugly fast. The Giants stand no chance in a shootout with the Dolphins. The only way they could win this game is if they play a defensive game. Even still, the Dolphins were able to beat the Patriots in a defensive battle. So, I think it’s fair to say the Dolphins are going to win this one with ease.
Tyreek Hill will run wild in this one as I don’t see anyone on the Giants capable of locking him down. Take the Dolphins and the points here. Besides, the Giants are 0-4 against the spread. Go with trends here.
Prediction: Miami wins, Miami covers -11
10/8: Baltimore Ravens (-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers, O/U 38, 1PM EST, CBS
Baltimore has looked strong this year as they have won both of their divisional matchups thus far on top of having a stellar defense. With the struggles of the Steeler offense, I don’t see them scoring many points. On the other hand, Pittsburgh also has a good defense. Last week was in no way the reality of what the Steeler defense is. They will have a bounce back game against a familiar opponent in Lamar Jackson.
As for the prediction, Baltimore will be able to lean on Pittsburgh and bleed them out in a low scoring win. Beyond winning the game, they will also find a way to win this game by around a touchdown.
Prediction: Baltimore wins, Baltimore covers -4
10/8: Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) @ Los Angeles Rams, O/U 50.5, 4:05PM EST, FOX
This one could get interesting if Cooper Kupp is able to return to the Rams offense. With the emergence of Puka Nacua, this offense could make noise if both he and Kupp are in the lineup. That said, I’m not sure the Rams are going to push Kupp to his limit this week.
The Eagles are looking great so far despite not looking as dominant as they can be. There will be a time where the Eagles wake up and look like the fiery team they were a year ago. It is scary to think that Philadelphia hasn’t looked their best but is still undefeated.
Look for this game to be one where Philadelphia looks strong from the beginning to the end.
Prediction: Philadelphia wins, Philadelphia covers -4.5
10/8: Cincinnati Bengals (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals, O/U 44.5, 4:05PM EST, FOX
If you told me before the season started that this line would be just three points, I would have told you that you were crazy. Cincinnati, on paper, is a lot better than Arizona. However, with Joe Burrow’s calf injury, this offense has been limited. It just goes to show how valuable Burrow’s ability to move around the pocket and scramble for first downs is.
As for Arizona, they have surprised me so far. This is a competitive team despite not having the pieces one might think you would need to win games in this league.
Until I see Burrow healthy and able to move around the pocket, I believe the Bengals are in trouble. Additionally, the Bengals have yet to cover a spread.
Prediction: Arizona wins, Arizona covers +3
10/8: New York Jets @ Denver Broncos (-2.5, O/U 43.5), 4:25PM EST, CBS
The Broncos are favored? I don’t understand that. The Jets are a solid team despite their record. They will come out mad after the way the officials screwed them out of a win against the Chiefs. On top of that, Russell Wilson will not cook against the Jets defense.
One thing that does benefit the Broncos, though, is the altitude. This will be an adjustment the Jets will have to make if they are going to win this game. However, altitude or not, I don’t see a team that had to come back to win after being down 21 against the Bears doing anything against the Jets.
Prediction: New York wins, New York covers +2.5
10/8: Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) @ Minnesota Vikings, O/U 53, 4:25PM EST, CBS
Minnesota finally got their first win of the season last week. However, I’m not impressed as it was against the Panthers. Will the Vikings have any way of slowing down Patrick Mahomes the way the Jets did? I don’t think so.
The environment should be rocking for the Vikings, but I don’t see that as enough for them to take down the Chiefs. Besides, if the Chiefs get in trouble, the men in black and white stripes will help them out.
Prediction: Kansas City wins, Kansas City covers -4.5
10/8 (SNF): Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, O/U 45), 8:20PM EST, NBC
Like Carrie Underwood says, I will be waiting all day for Sunday night for this one. This rematch of last year’s divisional round playoff game is sure to be must watch television. Both teams have elite defenses and have Super Bowl expectations.
Overall, I trust the 49ers more than the Cowboys. They haven’t slipped up against a weaker opponent like the Cowboys have. Furthermore, the Cowboys are prone to disappointments. So, look for the 49ers to show why they are the cream of the crop in the NFC.
Prediction: San Francisco wins, San Francisco covers -3.5
10/9 (MNF): Green Bay Packers (-1) @ Las Vegas Raiders, O/U 45, 8:15PM EST, ABC/ESPN
Vegas in primetime has got to be electric. I would love to go for a game there one time. For now, I’ll be predicting this one from Knoxville.
One point spreads make predicting these games easier in my opinion. Sure, I could just as easily miss both the money line and the spread. However, I think there is a clear better team in this game.
Green Bay being led by Jordan Love will be able to outpace Jimmy G. Additionally, I see their defense bouncing back after a rough week against Detroit. Beyond that, if Aidan O’Connell has to start for the Raiders instead of Jimmy G due to his concussion, the Raiders are cooked.
Prediction: Green Bay wins, Green Bay covers -1