Week 6 NFL Picks
By: Grant Poarch
First off, I want to say I apologize if you tailed me last week. Last week was by far my worst performance of the season. Overall, I went 6-8 last week on the money line and 6-8 on the spread. That brings my overall record on the season to 48-30 on the money line and 39-39 on the spread. I’ll go out on a limb and say this week will not be as tough to predict. With that said, fade me at your own risk and tail me at your benefit. The odds listed are provided by DraftKings.
10/12 (TNF): Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (-11, O/U 48), 8:15PM EST, Prime Video
On the money line, this will be a layup. Kansas City will win this game. In this rivalry, the Chiefs have come out on top each of the last 15 times. That will continue for several reasons. The first of those reasons being Patrick Mahomes. Against the AFC West, Mahomes is 27-3 in his career. To make things worse, Denver ranks last in the league defensively in points allowed as they have allowed 36.2 points per game.
Even if Travis Kelce is unable to go for this game, backup TE Noah Gray should have no problem filling in his shoes against this bottom feeder of a defense. Until things improve on the defensive side of the ball, Denver will be not be picked by me.
Prediction: Kansas City wins, Kansas City covers -11
10/15 (International Series, London): Baltimore Ravens (-4) vs Tennessee Titans, O/U 40.5, 9:30AM EST, NFL Network
I cannot wait for this game to start. If you ever hung out with the boys of Beta Theta Pi at the University of Tennessee on a Sunday, you would know that the Ravens and Titans strongly dislike each other. For that sole reason, I will be waking up in time for this game.
As for the game itself, I have gone back and forth on who is going to win this one. If there’s anything I know about the Tennessee Titans this season, it’s that they are consistently inconsistent. Last week, they lost to the Colts. In and of itself, that is an embarrassing loss even though Indianapolis is better than what most expected out of them this year. So, are the Titans due for a big win as a result?
On the other hand, the Ravens are coming off a surprising (to some) loss to the Steelers. They, like the Titans, looked out of character last week. Either way this game goes, I expect a close game. With that, I’m going with the Titans in an upset victory.
Prediction: Tennessee wins, Tennessee covers +4
10/15: New Orleans Saints (-1) @ Houston Texans, O/U 42.5, 1PM EST, FOX
Although most eyes will be on other channels when this game happens, this game involves one of the most interesting matchups of the week. C.J. Stroud has been great for the Texans thus far as he has thrown for seven touchdowns and no interceptions. The whole “no interceptions” thing will certainly be challenged as the New Orleans defense has been outstanding all year long.
A week ago, the Saints shut out the Patriots in a 34-0 victory. When the Saints’ offense shows up alongside a stingy defense, they can be a dangerous team. I see New Orleans having success against Houston on both sides of the ball. While Stroud has not yet had a bad game, look for that to happen this week.
Prediction: New Orleans wins, New Orleans covers -1
10/15: Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, O/U 42.5), 1PM EST, CBS
At home, the Falcons are a much better team than they are on the road. All three of their wins have been at home. With a team coming in on a cold streak like the one the Commanders are on, look for Atlanta to keep up their home-winning streak.
I was impressed a week ago with how the passing game operated for Atlanta. Normally, when the game is put in the hands of Desmond Ridder, the Falcons lose. However, after being held to just 2.7 yards per carry, the Falcons were forced to throw the ball. Ridder did so and he did so well. He racked up 329 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions in a 21-19 win over the Texans last week.
If Washington got slashed by giving up 40 points against the Bears, I don’t see how they are going to stop Atlanta.
Prediction: Atlanta wins, Atlanta covers -2.5
10/15: Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) @ Chicago Bears, O/U 44.5, 1PM EST, FOX
This is going to be a very interesting game. Minnesota will be without star WR Justin Jefferson for at least the next four weeks as he just got put on injured reserve due to a hamstring injury. On the other side, the Bears are coming off their first win over the season and Justin Fields is starting to look like the quarterback the Bears drafted him to be.
As for this week, I don’t see the Vikings be able to slow Justin Fields down. On top of that, the Minnesota offense will be hurting big time without Justin Jefferson. Look for a close, Chicago victory.
Prediction: Chicago wins, Chicago covers +2.5
10/15: Seattle Seahawks @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3, O/U 45.5), 1PM EST, CBS
Predicting this game might be the biggest headache of the week for me. Cincinnati looked great a week ago but have struggled outside of that. Seattle, outside of a stinker against the Rams, have looked like a solid team like they were a year ago.
Based on that logic, you would think Seattle is going to win this one. However, I think there is something to be said about the Bengals starting slow year in and year out and then subsequently going off on a tangent of wins. This, to me, is going to be the second game of a crazy winning streak for the Bengals.
Prediction: Cincinnati wins, Cincinnati covers -3
10/15: San Francisco 49ers (-7.5) @ Cleveland Browns, O/U 37.5, 1PM EST, FOX
If I understand correctly, this game opened as a 3.5 point spread in favor of the 49ers. With the line moving four points towards San Francisco, it’s easy to tell who the public likes in this game. Some of the movement has to do with the public, but with Deshaun Watson potentially missing this game look for San Francisco to cruise in this one.
As for the spread, it is a rather large one. That being said, betting against the 49ers is lunacy this season so you will not catch me doing that here. While the Cleveland defense is capable is slowing down this explosive San Francisco offense, they will not be able to stop them entirely. There are just too many weapons for the 49ers to lose this game. Over the course of the game, San Francisco will lean on Cleveland and win the game in an ugly fashion.
Prediction: San Francisco wins, San Francisco covers -7.5
10/15: Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins (-13.5, O/U 48.5), 1PM EST, CBS
At this point, count this as a win for the Dolphins. I know this is a “every given Sunday” league, but Carolina looks terrible and Miami has the capability of dropping 70 points on an inferior opponent.
Although Bryce Young is very talented, he is not capable of keeping up with the Tua-Tyreek connection that drives the Miami offense. Look for Miami to have a field day offensively and for Carolina to look out of sorts as they will have to get creative to have a chance of staying in this game.
Prediction: Miami wins, Miami covers -13.5
10/15: Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-4, O/U 45.5), 1PM EST, CBS
My head is telling me Jacksonville should coast in this game. However, when it comes to this rivalry, things have gone back in forth in the Trevor Lawrence era. Lawrence is 3-2 all time against the Colts and has seven touchdowns to just one interception in those contests.
This year, the Colts have been a very scrappy team. Even with Anthony Richardson getting hurt every other five minutes, the Colts have still found a way to be competitive. I see them giving the Jags a hard time, but Lawrence will outlast Gardner Minshew in a close one.
Prediction: Jacksonville wins, Jacksonville covers -4
10/15: New England Patriots @ Las Vegas Raiders (-3, O/U 41.5), 4:05PM EST, CBS
The fact that people are questioning the safety of Bill Belichick’s job is crazy to me. Yes, the Patriots haven’t been as good this year as they have been in the Tom Brady era. However, this is a man who was the coach of the greatest dynasty in the history of the league. There will be some down years as the team is trying to redefine itself.
All that being said, the Patriots are awful this year. In their last two games, they have only scored three points. This ineptitude is going to cost the Patriots wins until they find an offensive pulse.
A week ago, the Raiders defense looked solid against Jordan Love and the Packers. On top of that, Jimmy G being healthy certainly helps this offense with his veteran presence. With that, the Raiders are going to defend home turf again this weekend.
Prediction: Las Vegas wins, Las Vegas covers -3
10/15: Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams (-7, O/U 48.5), 4:25PM EST, FOX
I’m not sure the Rams have done enough to be favored by an entire score against the Cardinals. This is a divisional matchup and the Cardinals have played much tougher than expected. I see them doing the same this week even though Cooper Kupp reestablished himself into the offense a week ago.
Although I see a closer game than the spread indicates, I see the Rams being able to win this one because they have the better quarterback. Matt Stafford, while up there in age for a NFL player, is much better than Josh Dobbs. I trust that in a close game Stafford will be able to get the ball to guys like Kupp and Puka Nacua enough to keep the chains moving and the Rams in the lead. Unfortunately for Arizona, there aren’t similar weapons on their offense.
Prediction: Los Angeles wins, Arizona covers +7
10/15: Philadelphia Eagles (-7) @ New York Jets, O/U 41, 4:25PM EST, FOX
In their entire history, the New York Jets have not beaten the Philadelphia Eagles. Expect that trend to continue this weekend. Until the Eagles prove otherwise, they are one of the best teams in the league. While the Jets did have a nice win a week ago over the Broncos, that won’t cut it against the Eagles.
Make no mistake, the Eagles will fly high in this matchup. Zach Wilson is due for a stinker of a game and I see Philadelphia being able to get pressure on Wilson early and often. On the other side of the ball, the Jets do have a good defense but are they capable of covering both A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith?
Prediction: Philadelphia wins, Philadelphia covers -7
10/15: Detroit Lions (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers, O/U 43.5, 4:25PM EST, FOX
I think it’s time for some humble pie for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At 3-1 and at the top of their division, the Bucs are riding high into this game. Detroit is no joke and will show why the NFC South has no contenders. In addition, Amon-Ra St. Brown is returning to the starting lineup for the Lions.
For anyone who has watched both teams this year, it is clear that Detroit is the more cohesive unit. That being said, if Tampa Bay wins this game that would cause a shock wave around the league to watch out for the Buccaneers. If the Lions win, pencil them in for a playoff spot.
Prediction: Detroit wins, Detroit covers -3
10/15 (SNF): New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills (-14, O/U 44.5), 8:20PM EST, NBC
This is a huge spread, but it is well deserved in favor of the Bills. The Giants have been awful this season and they are known for folding under the prime time lights. The Bills usually show up big time after a loss, So, this is the perfect get-right game for them.
New York has very little hope in stopping Josh Allen. When he is on, he is very close to the best in the league. On the offensive side of the ball, the Giants offensive line won’t help them much in this game either. They have given up 30 sacks in just five games. I’m sure Von Miller and the rest of the Buffalo defense is licking their lips in this matchup despite losing Matt Milano as well as Tre’Davious White for the foreseeable future.
Prediction: Buffalo wins, Buffalo covers -14
10/16 (MNF): Dallas Cowboys (-2) @ Los Angeles Chargers, O/U 50.5, 8:15PM EST, ABC/ESPN
This line is rather interesting to me. I know Dallas just had their worst week of the season but who hasn’t against the mighty 49ers. The Cowboys still have an outstanding defense and will have a lot less to gameplan for as the Chargers don’t have the artillery that San Francisco does. Justin Herbert and crew will still present a challenge for the Cowboys, but I see the Cowboys front seven feasting on the Chargers’ offensive line from the get-go. Although the Los Angeles line doesn’t allow a ton of sacks, they will have trouble against what is one of the best defenses in the league.
On the other side, Dak Prescott is not going to have another game this week like he did last week. A week ago, Prescott folded under pressure as he threw three interceptions and was unable to get the Cowboys moving when they got behind in the game early on. On the bright side for Prescott, the Chargers rank 31st in opponent yards per game as they have given up an average of 404 yards in each contest.
Lastly, this will essentially be a home game for the Cowboys. The Chargers fans will maybe take up half of the stadium if they are lucky. To make things worse, Brandon Staley is still their coach.
Prediction: Dallas wins, Dallas covers -2