Week 7 sec picks and predictions
By: Grant Poarch
All I can say is if you tailed last week… you’re welcome. A week ago was the best week percentage wise on both the money line and the spread. I went 6-0 on the money line and 5-1 on the spread. Some of that can be attributed to less games and more SEC action. However, I’m choosing to think that I’m getting better at this and will continue to give y’all good results in these picks. Overall on the season I am 49-12 on the money line and 22-26 on the spread. Take that as you will in your betting selections. With that said, tail me at your benefit and fade me at your expense. The odds listed are provided by DraftKings.
#1 Georgia (-32.5) @ Vanderbilt, O/U 56, 12:00PM EST, CBS
This is certain to be a snooze fest. Georgia will have no problem manhandling Vanderbilt and if you need an explanation as to why then I guess you haven’t watched much college football. In each of the last two seasons, Vanderbilt has failed to score a point against Georgia. I see that continuing this week. With their imminent dominant performance, Georgia will continue to show why they are the best team in college football. Don’t overthink this one, Georgia will win comfortably.
Prediction: Georgia wins, Georgia covers -32.5
Arkansas @ #11 Alabama (-20, O/U 46.5), 12:00PM EST, ESPN
I don’t see any way Alabama loses this game. Arkansas is the only team in the SEC West that hasn’t beaten Nick Saban since he has been the coach of the Crimson Tide. While there have been some close calls, Alabama has never been truly in danger of losing to the Hogs.
Despite this one being a 11AM local kickoff, Alabama will still win this easily even if the fans and students aren’t properly liquored up just yet.
Even though I don’t see Arkansas winning the game, I see them keeping this one respectable for longer than Alabama fans might like. In their road losses this year, they covered against both LSU and Ole Miss. Alabama seems to be better than both of those teams, but I’m going with the trends in this matchup.
Prediction: Alabama wins, Arkansas covers +20
Florida @ South Carolina (-2.5, O/U 50), 3:30PM EST, SECN
A year ago, Florida embarrassed South Carolina 30-6. A week later, South Carolina went on to upset Tennessee and then Clemson to follow that performance. So, which South Carolina are we going to get this week? In the Shane Beamer era, the home team has blown out the other in this matchup both teams they have faced off.
While I don’t see a blowout coming on either side, I could see South Carolina winning this one. On paper, Florida should win this game. However, Willy B will be rocking and get South Carolina a much-needed win. My gut is telling me Florida will be able to control the line of scrimmage and win but I’m going to go against that because I see a Billy Napier disaster class incoming.
Prediction: South Carolina wins, South Carolina covers -2.5
Texas A&M @ #19 Tennessee (-3, O/U 55), 3:30PM EST, CBS
In this one, there are two note-worthy streaks on the line. Texas A&M is coming into this one on a seven-game road losing streak. Tennessee is coming in with a 12 game winning streak in Neyland Stadium that dates all the way back to the 2021 matchup against Georgia.
The key in this game is going to be how the Tennessee offense is able to run the ball. Texas A&M had a great game last week against Alabama on the ground. In Tennessee’s loss to Florida, they struggled on the ground. It’s clear to see that the first step to beating the Vols is slowing down their running attack as they are a run-first team.
However, with this game being in Neyland Stadium, I don’t see the Vols dropping this one. I see a similar performance to the one we saw the Vols put on against South Carolina.
Prediction: Tennessee wins, Tennessee covers -3
Auburn @ #22 LSU (-11.5, O/U 60.5), 7:00PM EST, ESPN
If Jayden Daniels weren’t around, I’m not sure this LSU team would be anything better than they were in 2020 and 2021. His presence on this team cannot be overstated. He is well within the Heisman race and deservedly so. Daniels will be the reason LSU wins this game. I don’t see how Payton Thorne is going to lead the Auburn offense to keep up.
On top of that, this game is in Baton Rouge. Outside of Auburn’s victory in Death Valley in 2021, Auburn hadn’t won there this century (1999 was the last win before 2021).
Due to Daniels and Death Valley, the Bayou Bengals will come out on top with ease.
Prediction: LSU wins, LSU covers -11.5
Missouri @ #24 Kentucky (-2.5, O/U 50.5), 7:30PM EST, SECN
Both teams suffered rough losses last week. Mizzou and Kentucky were both undefeated and both got humbled by teams that have been there and done that. With recalibrated expectations, this game will be one of the sneaky good ones this week.
Kentucky being at home certainly helps them, but being favored by less than a field goal at home is eyebrow raising to say the least. That said, Missouri hasn’t won in Lexington since 2013.
I don’t feel good on either side of this matchup. One on hand, Missouri was competitive against LSU but still lost after scoring 39 points. On the other hand, Kentucky got absolutely destroyed by Georgia. All I know is that by the end of the season both teams will have three or more losses.
In the end, I’ll roll with the Cats because they are at home and I trust Mark Stoops more than Eli Drinkwitz.
Prediction: Kentucky wins, Kentucky covers -2.5