Week 12 sec picks and predictions
By: Grant Poarch
Last week was yet another profitable one so I hope y’all trailed. If not there’s still time to hop on the SEC train before the regular season comes to a close in a few weeks. A week ago, I went 6-1 on the money line and 4-3 on the spread. That brings my overall record to 74-18 on the money line and 41-38 on the spread.
For the most part, the games around the conference this week stink. This is that week for most teams right before rivalry games where they play a non-power-five opponent. For entertainment’s sake, that stinks. For money line bettors, however, you have a chance to make some “easy” money.
With that said, let’s get into the predictions. Fade me at your own risk and tail me at your inevitable benefit.
Chattanooga @ #8 Alabama, 12:00PM EST, ESPN+ & SECN+
This one will be over very quickly. Alabama, despite coming off a gauntlet, is way too good to keep this game close.
Some might say that this is a “look-ahead” spot. While that might be true in most instances, it is not true in this one. After this game, Alabama plays Auburn in Jordan-Hare Stadium.
It is silly to think that Alabama won’t take this game or the Iron Bowl seriously. Alabama will win this by at least 40.
Prediction: Alabama wins
UL Monroe @ #13 Ole Miss (-37.5, O/U 62.5), 12:00PM EST, SECN
Ole Miss will win this one by a massive margin. UL Monroe is 2-8 and is on a eight-game losing streak. There is no doubt in my mind that will extend to nine games.
This year, ULM has played one team that could possibly have business on the field with Ole Miss. That team was Texas A&M. When ULM went on the road to College Station, they lost 47-3. That in and of itself should be enough to convince you that an ass-kicking is coming here.
Ole Miss was destroyed a week ago in Athens. Their postseason hopes of maybe making Atlanta or even the College Football Playoff were crushed. It would be easy to say that Ole Miss sleeps through this game as a result. However, ULM is too poor of a team to keep this respectable.
Prediction: Ole Miss wins, Ole Miss covers -37.5
Southern Miss @ Mississippi State (-14.5, O/U 46.5), 12:00PM EST, ESPN+ & SECN+
This one might be more interesting than most people think. Too bad this game isn’t on national television. The reason I say that is because Mississippi State just fired Zach Arnett. Their interim head coach, Greg Knox, has experience with this position. He was Mississippi State’s interim head coach in 2017 for their bowl game where they beat Louisville. He also had the interim head coach position at Florida in 2021. All that said, I’d like to see how Knox does in his third stint with this job.
As for the game, Mississippi State should be embarrassed if this is close. Southern Miss is just 3-7 on the year. In their only matchup against a power five opponent, they lost to Florida State 66-13. I would be stunned if Hail State lost this one. They really need to win this game and at least be competitive against Ole Miss next week so they can have some momentum going into next year. While I don’t feel as confident in the Bulldogs on the spread, I think I have no choice but to take them given the quality (or lack thereof) of the opponent.
Prediction: Mississippi State wins, Mississippi State covers -14.5
Abilene Christian @ Texas A&M, 12:00PM EST, ESPN+ & SECN+
Like the Mississippi State game, it is unfortunate that StreamEast will likely be the source for most people watching this game. Finally, the Aggies fired Jimbo Fisher. This move was well overdue and the Aggie faithful should be excited for the future as a result.
As for the game, there is no spread on this one for a reason. Texas A&M will tear this team apart. Last week, Abilene Christian lost to Tarleton 31-30. Anyone that does that mind as well not show up against a team like Texas A&M. Aggies by a mile here.
Prediction: Texas A&M wins
#1 Georgia (-10) @ #18 Tennessee, O/U 59.5, 3:30PM EST, CBS
The line here is very interesting. With how these two teams have played, Georgia should win by 20 or more. They very well could do so but the line shows how big of an impact Neyland Stadium can make.
As a Tennessee student, I don’t see how the Vols pull this one off. This is different than last year when they shocked the world by upsetting Alabama. Back then, they had a top tier team. On top of that, there were some questionable things that went Tennessee’s way that night. That’s not to say that it wasn’t deserved on Alabama’s end because it was.
Regardless, my point there was that Georgia does not have flaws that allow for someone much worse for them to compete. Sure, that was the case earlier this season. Now, though, the Dawgs look unstoppable. With the return of Brock Bowers, that sentiment cannot be understated.
I fully expect Neyland Stadium to be rocking tomorrow. However, the crowd can only do so much when the team on the field doesn’t match up well with the opponent.
Prediction: Georgia wins, Georgia covers -10
New Mexico State @ Auburn (-26, O/U 48), 4:00PM EST, SECN
Let’s not kid ourselves here. Auburn is going to have their way with New Mexico State. When you look at their schedule, you will see that the Aggies haven’t played anyone that belongs on the field with Auburn.
I don’t doubt that the Tigers will come out on top here but this spread is weird to me. While Auburn has beaten three SEC teams in a row in their winning streak, none of those teams are good at all.
That said, it’s usually a safe bet to take the SEC team to beat a team of New Mexico State’s status by 30 or more. I know there’s not much logic there, but I trust myself here.
Prediction: Auburn wins, Auburn covers -26
Florida @ #9 Missouri (-11, O/U 59), 7:30PM EST, ESPN
After what I saw a week ago, Missouri will win this game comfortably. The Tigers shocked the nation in the fashion they beat Tennessee. I’m sure they will “stand on business” this week as well.
Florida is riding a three-game losing streak going into this one. There is nothing in my mind that convinces me that they are a good team. They can’t stop anyone. If Mizzou’s Cody Schrader ran for 205 yards and racked up another 116 yards receiving against the Vols, he is bound to torch the Gators.
Until something changes in a big way, Florida is going to lose games like this in embarrassing fashion.
Prediction: Missouri wins, Missouri covers -11
Florida International @ Arkansas (-29, O/U 51.5), 7:30PM EST, ESPNU
Why in the world is this game on ESPNU? Could they not find anything better than this? Unless Sam Pittman drinks an “ole cold beer” on television during the game, I don’t want to see this.
FIU stands no chance of winning. They lost to Middle Tennessee last week by a score of 40-6. If that doesn’t convince you that they are in for a beating against a SEC team I don’t know what will.
The Arkansas faithful will have the entire day to drink and make this an even harder feat for FIU to pull off. The Hogs will be called early and often in this one.
Prediction: Arkansas wins, Arkansas covers -29
Kentucky (-1.5) @ South Carolina, O/U 54, 7:30PM EST, SECN
Finally, there’s a game where I’m not too sure of the outcome. My hunch is that Kentucky will win because South Carolina isn’t very good. Although Carolina has won two in a row, it was against Jacksonville State and Vanderbilt to bring their record to an “impressive” 4-6.
Kentucky is slightly better and if they are able to pass the ball this game the way they did against Tennessee this will be a piece of cake. South Carolina does have home-field advantage as well as a night atmosphere cooked into this one. However, I think the fans are more focused on Clemson coming into town next week.
In my eyes, Spencer Rattler is due for a disaster class. While Kentucky isn’t elite defensively by any stretch, it would be funny to see them clamp down on Carolina.
Prediction: Kentucky wins, Kentucky covers -1.5
Georgia State @ #19 LSU (-32, O/U 71), 8:00PM EST, ESPN2
Georgia State doesn’t have a prayer here. Even if Jayden Daniels wasn’t playing, LSU would win this by more than what the number says. The Panthers just got beat by App State by 28 so LSU is going to do unspeakable things to them. Will Georgia State be able to stop this LSU offense more than once or twice? Probably not but for their sake let’s hope sp.
This feels like one of the easier picks of the week. I don’t see how Georgia State keeps up with LSU, especially in Baton Rouge.
Prediction: LSU wins, LSU covers -32
