Week 11 NFL Picks
By: Grant Poarch
While last week wasn’t as elite as my week nine picks, we are still turning a profit nearly every week. For the second week in a row and just the second time this season, I did better on the spread than the money line. I went 8-6 on the money line and 9-5 on the spread. That brings my overall record on the year to 93-57 on the money line and 78-72 on the spread. When I looked at the slate for this week, it is either a field goal spread or multiple score spread for 80-90% of the games. That should be good for the picks but we will see about that. With that said, fade me at your own risk and tail me at your benefit. The odds listed are provided by DraftKings.
11/16 (TNF): Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, O/U 46), 8:15PM EST, Prime Video
This rivalry is always entertaining, isn’t it? Since Joe Burrow has been the starter for the Bengals, this series is tied at three wins a piece. Last time these two played (week 2), the Ravens won 27-24. A big reason for that was the health of Joe Burrow. At the time, it was clear that Burrow was struggling through some sort of calf injury. His mobility is a very underrated part of his game and the absence showed itself in the first few weeks.
On paper, it seems like Baltimore should win this game. They are one of, if not the best, at pass rush in the league whereas the Bengals have struggled to protect Burrow as of late.
Regardless of all that, give me the Bengals. The Bengals have their backs against the wall as they are last in the division and they have to start winning games in order to make the playoffs. When in doubt, I trust Burrow.
Prediction: Cincinnati wins, Cincinnati covers +3.5
11/19: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (-4, O/U 37), 1:00PM EST, CBS
This is going to be your stereotypical AFC North rivalry game. Lots of trash talk, chaos, and a great game are surely coming our way.
It was announced this week that Deshaun Cosby will be missing the remainder of the season due to a shoulder injury. As a result, the Browns are going to have to start Dorian Thompson-Robinson. DTR is not capable of doing all that much at this point, he is too young and raw to make a positive impact yet. In his short career, DTR has thrown for just 139 yards with three interceptions and no touchdowns. As a result, I see the Pittsburgh defense having a field day.
On top of that defense, the Steelers also have a massive advantage in their head coach. Mike Tomlin should be considered for Coach of the Year as he has the Steelers at 6-3 despite being abysmal on offense at times. With that and Deshaun Watson missing this game, the Steelers are going to win in an upset.
Prediction: Pittsburgh wins, Pittsburgh covers +1
11/19: Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (-7.5, O/U 47), 1:00PM EST, FOX
Even if Justin Fields returns for this game, Detroit will win. They are far better than the Bears and they are extremely hot right now. With Fields coming back from a right thumb injury, that is going to make an impact on the game. As someone who has had a thumb injury similar to Fields, I can tell you that it is quite the pain in the ass. Luckily for me, I didn’t have to face the Detroit Lions’ pass rush when I returned.
On the other side of the ball, I’m not sure how the Chicago secondary is going to be able to stop the Lions’ passing attack. Look for Jared Goff to throw for 300 yards or more yet again this week. Furthermore, in six of the last seven games, Amon Ra St. Brown has gone for over 100 yards receiving.
Doesn’t it feel good that Detroit is finally a playoff-like team? If only Chicago could be the same.
Prediction: Detroit wins, Detroit covers -7.5
11/19: Los Angeles Chargers (-3) @ Green Bay Packers, O/U 44.5, 1:00PM EST, FOX
If this game wasn’t in Lambeau, I could see the Chargers winning by 10 or more. A big reason for that is because of the Packers’ offense as well as their rushing defense. In the past seven games, the Packers haven’t scored more than 21 points. Additionally, Green Bay allowed over 200 yards rushing a week ago against the Steelers.
Both of those unfortunate statistics are ones that matter even when you are the home team. The Packers aren’t all that this year and the idea that Jordan Love will outduel Justin Herbert is a joke.
Beyond that, the Chargers impressed me a week ago by hanging around with the Lions. They could have easily been blown out by the Lions but they gave Detroit everything they had. I expect the Chargers to look good again this week and take this one by a score or two.
Prediction: Los Angeles wins, Los Angeles covers -3
11/19: Las Vegas Raiders @ Miami Dolphins (-13.5, O/U 48), 1:00PM EST, CBS
Antonio Pierce has the vibes high in Vegas. That being said, he led the Raiders to beat the Giants and Jets. Those teams aren’t exactly your Miami Dolphins of the world. There is no way Aidan O’Connell outduels Tua Tagovailoa in Miami.
To make things even harder for Vegas, Miami is coming off a bye week. The Dolphins surely have something cooked up on offense to gash the Raider defense all throughout the game.
My inclination is that Miami will win this game with ease. Until I see the new-look Raiders beat someone that is high-quality, I don’t see them beating a team like the Dolphins.
Prediction: Miami wins, Miami covers -13.5
11/19: New York Giants @ Washington Commanders (-8.5, O/U 37.5), 1:00PM EST, FOX
Sorry, Giants fans. Tommy DeVito will indeed be starting again this weekend. As long as he is the starter, the Giants don’t have a prayer of winning any games. To make things worse for the Giants, they know Washington very well. Their normal game plan against the Commanders should be a lot easier than normal to come up with due to DeVito’s presence.
If DeVito doesn’t turn around the Giants’ offense quickly, they will be in big trouble here. A big reason for that is his counterpart, Sam Howell, has seemed to find a groove as of late. In the last three games, Howell has thrown for over 300 yards.
Given that Howell does just half of what he’s been doing, the Giants won’t be able to do enough to keep up. I see Howell having yet another great game and the Commanders coasting to victory as a result.
Prediction: Washington wins, Washington covers -8.5
11/19: Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) @ Carolina Panthers, O/U 42.5, 1:00PM EST, FOX
Dallas is going to absolutely destroy the Panthers in this one. The Panthers are straight poverty this year and Dallas is one of better teams in the league. Bryce Young will struggle big time against the Cowboys’ defense.
To emphasize the point that the Cowboys are going to win this one by a lot, look no further than the NFL on Youtube’s game prediction. None of the ten insiders have the Panthers winning. Beyond that, all but one of them have this game being separated by multiple scores.
I would be beyond stunned if the Cowboys lose. If the Cowboys do lose, I will be turning on First Take on ESPN so fast to see Stephen A Smith’s reaction. That being said, we aren’t going to see him flame the Cowboys this week. Dallas wins here by a ton.
Prediction: Dallas wins, Dallas covers -10.5
11/19: Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-7, O/U 39.5), 1:00PM EST, CBS
As I anticipated from the moment he entered the NFL Draft, Will Levis has shown signs of being a bad quarterback. His superhero game against the Falcons is nothing but a distant memory at this point. The Titans are in poverty at the moment and I don’t see things getting any better against the Jags.
Since this is a division game, the Titans could give Jacksonville some trouble. However, can you really see the Titans winning this one? They have struggled mightily along the offensive line as of late. On the other side, the Jaguars just got smacked and I’m sure they are chomping at the bit to do the same to the Titans.
Who are you really going to rock with in this game? Are you going to take Will Levis or are you taking Trevor Lawrence?
Prediction: Jacksonville wins, Jacksonville covers -7
11/19: Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans (-5, O/U 47.5), 1:00PM EST, CBS
Whenever C.J. Stroud plays, we are in for a treat. Not only should he win the Offensive Rookie of the Year, he should be seriously considered for MVP votes right now. The turnaround he has led the Texans to is incredible.
As for the game, Kyler Murray will be making his second start since returning from injury. Despite the win, Murray didn’t play well. He threw no touchdowns and an interception. That isn’t exactly impressive when your opponent is someone like Atlanta. If Murray doesn’t have a juristically better game this week, C.J. Stroud will lead the Texans to a rather large victory.
Regardless of how Murray plays, the Cardinals aren’t a good team. I don’t see how they are going to be able to keep up with Stroud. Although I hope this is a good game, I’m not confident that it will be.
Prediction: Houston wins, Houston covers -5
11/19: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers (-12, O/U 41.5), 4:05PM EST, FOX
It seems like the 49ers got their swagger back last week. They killed the Jaguars in a shocking result. Their win wasn’t a major surprise, but winning the game 34-3 definitely put the league on notice.
I expect a similar result to happen this week. Tampa Bay just isn’t as good as they were a few years ago. San Francisco, all around, is leaps and bounds better. The Bucs have their hands full in trying to stop Christian McCaffery, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel. On the other side of the ball, do you really think Baker Mayfield is going to keep up? Better yet, is he going to keep up while competing against the 49er defense?
The answer to those Baker questions is hell no. Don’t overthink this one. San Francisco kills Tampa here.
Prediction: San Francisco wins, San Francisco covers -12
11/19: New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-7, O/U 40), 4:25PM EST, CBS
The Bills need this game in the worst way. They played like garbage on Monday Night against the Broncos. Even still, they were a “too many men on the field” call away from winning the game. I’m not sure if that means the Broncos are that bad for allowing the Bills to stay in the game or that the Bills are good enough to stay in a game where they played as poorly as they did.
Regardless, the Bills face Zach Wilson this week. In the last three games, the Jets haven’t scored more than 13 points. Despite the recent Buffalo struggles, there is no way 13 points will be enough to win this game if you are the Jets. Buffalo is bound to have a game against the Jets as New York will constantly be giving the ball back to the Bills.
I will be stunned if the Bills lose again. Yes, they have been bad as of late. Still, though, they are playing the Jets.
Prediction: Buffalo wins, Buffalo covers -7
11/19: Seattle Seahawks (-1) @ Los Angeles Rams, O/U 46, 4:25PM EST, CBS
Matt Stafford is said to be practicing fully as of yesterday, so there’s at least that for the Rams. Without Stafford, the Rams have no hope. His presence should definitely contribute in a positive way for Los Angeles.
As for Seattle’s QB, Geno Smith will be pivotal in the outcome. This year, he has been up and down. Some weeks he looks like the old Geno while other weeks he looks like the Geno that earned his contract last season.
When these two teams played last time, the Rams embarrassed the Seahawks. I don’t see a similar result this time around. The main reason for that is the Rams’ pass defense. In their last four games, they have allowed a 109.5 rating to wide receivers. That is absolutely awful. Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are sure to feast this game.
Prediction: Seattle wins, Seattle covers -1
11/19 (SNF): Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos (-2, O/U 43.5), 8:20PM EST, NBC
Although neither team is Super Bowl bound, I can’t wait to watch this one. Josh Dobbs proved me wrong last weekend and has continued to prove the entire league that he deserves to be a starting quarterback in this league.
As for Denver, they are playing much better now than I ever expected them to do this season. Their three-game winning streak has breathed life back into their playoff hopes. When I watched them last week, however, I was not as impressed as I should have been with a win over Buffalo. The main reason for that is the self-destruction by the Bills. If the Bills weren’t in their own way all game, they would have run the Broncos out of the building.
Don’t count on any self-destruction this week. Josh Dobbs has not thrown an interception since joining the Vikings. I anticipate him taking care of the ball once again this week. Furthermore, Minnesota has won five in a row. Sure, they are bound for a loss at some point. Until then, I’m riding the hot hand.
Prediction: Minnesota wins, Minnesota covers +2
11/20 (MNF): Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, O/U 45.5), 8:15PM EST, ABC/ESPN/ESPN+
Taylor Swift is on tour this night, so she might not be at the game. Regardless, the NFL is going to do everything they can to push the narrative and get Swift at this game.
As for the game on the field, this is going to be epic. The Eagles are out for revenge from their Super Bowl loss and Arrowhead Stadium is going to be rocking. The matchup of the game is going to be the Eagles’ offense against the Chiefs’ defense. The Chiefense has been outstanding this year. Mahomes has complimented them several times publicly and it is clear that they would not be 7-2 without them.
If the Chiefs can get a few stops on Hurts and the rest of the Eagles’ offense, Mahomes will have more than enough to lead Kansas City to a win. Outside of that, the Chiefs seem to have a knack for things going their way with the stripes if you know what I mean. With all that said, I trust Mahomes in a big game like this one.
Prediction: Kansas City wins, Kansas City covers -3