Thanksgiving and black friday football PICKS
By: Grant Poarch
Let’s hope for your wallet’s sake that you did not tail me last week. It was one of the few weeks this year that we have not profited. Last week, I went 7-7 on the money line and 5-9 on the spread. That is abysmal. This poor performance brings my overall season record to 100-64 on the money line and 83-81 on the spread. On the SEC side of things, I went 8-2 on the money line and 3-5 on the spread. In the SEC, that brings my overall record on the year to 82-20 on the money line and 44-43 on the spread.
This week’s article is going to be split in two because it’s a lot of work to do and I want to eat turkey more than I want to write this. Regardless, there is money to be made. With that said, fade me at your own risk and tail me at your benefit. The odds listed are provided by DraftKings.
11/23 (Thanksgiving Early Game): Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (-7.5, O/U 47.5), 12:30PM EST, FOX
My gut is telling me Detroit. The Lions, despite not being as dominant the past few weeks, have found ways to win when things don’t look pretty. That is what good teams do and it is good to finally see the Lions becoming among the league’s elite.
Despite the Lions losing each of their last six Thanksgiving Day games, that streak will not extend to seven. The Lions are hot and I don’t see how they’ll lose to Jordan Love at home.
I could give you football reasons but I’m just going to tell y’all to trust me on this one. Lions win this one.
Prediction: Detroit wins, Detroit covers -7.5
11/23 (Thanksgiving Afternoon Game): Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys (-13.5, O/U 49), 4:30PM EST, CBS
The Cowboys playing on Thanksgiving is classic. Dallas is built for this holiday and they are due for a breakout performance on the holiday. They have lost three out of their last four on Thanksgiving but they would win this game any day it was played.
Last week, Washington lost to Tommy Devito. That is simply inexcusable. They are going to have a tough time bouncing back as they are going to be pressured all game long while not being able to pressure themselves.
I see the Dallas front seven having a field day whereas the Washington front seven won’t get more than a sack or two. That much is evident by the trade of Chase Young as well as the sheer power of what exists in Dallas in Micah Parson. All that said, this is a massive spread. I see Washington keeping it close for a while but ultimately coming up short.
Prediction: Dallas wins, Washington covers +13.5
#12 Ole Miss (-9.5) @ Mississippi State, O/U 54, 6:30PM EST
Everyone knows that in this rivalry, things can get weird. Since 2015, this series is tied at 4 games apiece. There was even a game that Ole Miss lost in large part due to a celebration where Elijah Moore did a dog peeing gesture. That caused the game tying extra point to be moved back which then was subsequently missed and Mississippi State ended up winning by one point. Furthermore, three of the last four years have ended in a one score game.
On the field and on paper, Ole Miss is much better. Beyond that, they have stability in their coaching staff. They, like Missouri, are also competing for New Year’s Six bowl eligibility. They will flex their muscles over their hated rivals this game but don’t expect a blowout.
Prediction: Ole Miss wins, Mississippi State covers +9.5
11/23 (Thanksgiving Night Game): San Francisco 49ers (-7) @ Seattle Seahawks, O/U 44, 8:20PM EST, NBC
Since San Francisco’s bye week, they have looked like the team I expected them to be. They are damn near unstoppable. Even when one of their stars has a subpar week, there is another one there to pick up the puzzle.
Seattle does not have what it takes on defense to hold this team down long enough to make a difference in the outcome. Even if they could, Geno Smith isn’t going to lead them to victory. This year, he has not been the guy they paid the massive contract to.
San Francisco is going to continue to roll and will run away with this division starting with this game. Give me the Niners here.
Prediction: San Francisco wins, San Francisco covers -7
11/24 (Black Friday Special): Miami Dolphins (-10) @ New York Jets, O/U 41.5, 3:00PM EST, Prime Video
The Jets are starting Tim Boyle this week. Need I say more? The Jets are a solid team all around but until they get a good starting quarterback they will lose to teams with a good offense.
Miami is going to roll in this one. Although the Jets may make some stops on Tua and the boys, they won’t have enough to keep up in the end.
Overall, I don’t trust Boyle to keep this one close. He may be able to keep this game within 20 but 10 points seems too steep of a task for a player of his caliber.
Prediction: Miami wins, Miami covers -10
#9 Missouri (-8.5) @ Arkansas, O/U 55.5, 3:00PM EST, CBS
Although I don’t believe Missouri is as good as their record or ranking indicates, they are far better than Arkansas. The Hogs are going to have a rough time trying to stop Cody Schrader and Luther Burden. Beyond that, they are not going to be able to keep up offensively as KJ Jefferson has led the offense to an average of just under 21 points per game in SEC play.
On the other side, Missouri is competing for New Year’s Six bowl contention. That would be massive in terms of recruiting and program confidence. Before the year, people said that Missouri might not win seven games. Wouldn’t that be sweet for Eli Drinkwitz to lead his Tigers to a 10-2 season?
As for the Hogs, Arkansas will not fire Sam Pittman after this year but a 4-8 season will make things weird in Fayetteville. Make no mistake, Arkansas will lose yet another SEC contest.
Prediction: Missouri wins, Missouri covers -8.5