Divisional Round Prop Bets 01/22/2022
All lines are from BetMGM
Saturday Games
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
The long-awaited return of King Henry will occur in the Titans’ most important home game since 2008. Coming off of a bye, the Titans will have no time to show rust as their opponent is hungry and ready to feast.
Cincinnati’s win over Las Vegas last week marked their first playoff win in 31 years, and they are going to be a tall task for Tennessee.
Currently, the Titans are a 3.5-point home favorite. I am leaning towards taking +3.5 for Cincinnati. The main reason I am taking this is that the questions we may have had about the Bengals being ready for the playoffs were answered in full last week. Joe Burrow looked calm under pressure and found his favorite, Jamaar Chase, with ease.
On the other hand, I have my doubts about Tennessee. While they are a good team who knows how to win, there are still multiple unknowns going into the game. First, what Titan team will show up? Will their worst show up, such as a loss against the Jets? Or, will they play great, such as their dominant win over Kansas City? Secondly, we have not seen Derrick Henry in months. The Titans have reported that Henry has been practicing at full speed, but the real question is whether or not that will translate to a full speed playoff game.
As I alluded to earlier, Joe Burrow and Jamarr Chase have been in stride as of late. It is no secret that Burrow relies on Chase in big games, and with this game being the biggest of their NFL careers we should expect more of the same this weekend. With that said, my prop pick of the game is Jamarr Chase O 80.5 receiving yards. Last week, Chase caught 9 passes for 116 yards and has racked in over 100 yards in the last three meaningful games he has played in (not including the season finale against the Browns in which Joe Burrow did not play).
The Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) and Jamarr Chase O 80.5 receiving yards
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (-5.5)
Green Bay is another team coming off of a bye that is a home favorite, like the Titans. At a -5.5 point favorite, which could be moving to the full 6 points on other sites, the Packers are the biggest favorites of the Divisional Round.
This comes as no surprise for several reasons. Green Bay has been dominant for the majority of the season, and on top of that the Packers have not lost a game at home this season. The week off should be more beneficial for the Packers than what would be expected out of the Titans as
the bye week allowed Aaron Rodgers to rest and David Bakhtiari to make a comeback. The only issue with the bye is not playing a game when you are hot, but then again the Packers did start their starters for the first half of the Detroit game to close out the season.
San Francisco comes into Lambeau fresh off of an upset win over the Dallas Cowboys. The Niners won the game in the best way they know how. The running game was extremely effective for San Francisco along with a stout defense for the majority of the game. They will need to be even better this weekend as Aaron Rodgers is the odds favorite to win the MVP right now.
In terms of the spread, I am leaning towards taking the Packers (-5.5). I don’t think the 49ers have what it takes to go into Lambeau Field and beat Aaron Rodgers despite San Francisco never losing to Rodgers in his entire career. That will change on Saturday and you will find Green Bay in the NFC Championship next weekend.
In order for that to happen, Rodgers must be in synch with Davante Adams. I believe, like Burrow will do with Chase, that Aaron Rodgers will lean on his best receiver in Davante Adams to get crucial first downs and bombs down the field. That being said, the prop bet for this game that I have is Davante Adams anytime touchdown (-125). Although San Francisco has a good defense, they will not have the defensive backs to cover Davante for long enough for him to not find the end zone at some point in the contest.
The Pick: Green Bay Packers (-5.5) and Davante Adams anytime touchdown (-125)
Sunday Games
Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Last week, Tampa Tom and the Bucs put on an impressive show against the Philadelphia Eagles. However, this week should not be as easy for Tampa Bay. With the Rams coming in off of an impressive victory of their won, this game should be a good one. Tampa Bay is a field goal favorite, but is only a -2.5 point favorite on some other sports betting platforms.
I believe that the sportsbooks have forgot who they are dealing with. Tom Brady, who is the goat if you didn’t already know, has been outstanding in the playoffs for his entire career. On the other hand, Matt Stafford just got his first playoff win last week despite being in the league since 2009.
Although that shouldn’t matter, it really does. Tom Brady has been here and done that. This game this weekend, while still important, is nowhere close to the biggest stage that he has been on. His opposition, Matt Stafford has never been in this big of a game in his career.
I don’t really think I have to explain this pick with statistics or any other metrics. I have Tampa Bay not only winning this game, but covering the -3 spread. This game will be close because the Rams are hot at the right time and they are firing on all cylinders.
Matt Stafford will not be able to turn the ball over this game, which has been a problem for him at time this year. If he can find Odell Beckham and Cooper Kupp comfortably throughout the game, then the Rams have a real shot at taking Tom Brady down. The Rams defense is solid, and it starts with their defensive line. Aaron Donald and Von Miller could be the catalyst to a Los Angeles’ victory if they are to have a good game. Tampa Bay’s offensive line is banged up (Ryan Jensen and Tristan Wirfs among several other players on the team), so the Tampa O-Line versus the Los Angeles D-Line will be the matchup to watch in this one.
As for Tampa Bay, they showed that they are extremely well rounded and can play good football despite several injuries to key players on the roster. That being said, my prop bet pick for this game is Tom Brady U 2.5 passing touchdowns. You may ask yourself, why is he picking the Brady under passing touchdowns after hyping him up? Well, good question. The real is that Tampa Bay can win this game off of defense and running, if they really needed to. They have so many different ways that they can beat someone that it is hard to judge how they will come out and play against a certain opponent. With this matchup being against another defensive juggernaut, I expect that Tampa will use the running game more than normal to keep the Rams’ defense honest and will likely convert on their red zone trips with touchdowns to guys like Leonard Fournette (or even a sneak from Tom Brady).
The Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) and Tom Brady U 2.5 passing touchdowns
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5)
To cap off the Divisional Round of the playoffs, we have the closest game (spread wise) of the whole weekend. Of the four games, I am the most excited for this one. Buffalo played against Kansas City in the playoffs last year, and were taken down in unceremonious fashion.
Buffalo will be looking for revenge, and last week they got revenge in a big way with a huge win over the Patriots. Buffalo’s defense is incredible, and they will need to be against Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the high-powered Chiefs offense. If Buffalo is going to win this game, they are going to need a great performance from Josh Allen. Throwing for five touchdowns and no interceptions last week was outstanding, and if he does it again this team could be bound to break some folding tables in the Superbowl.
As for Kansas City, they cannot afford to play the way they did for the first quarter of last week’s game against the Steelers. If they show up as lethargic as they did against the Steelers, they will surely find themselves behind several scores. The key for Kansas City to win this game is sustaining offensive drives to keep Josh Allen off of the field. We already know that Kansas City can score on most teams at will, but against Buffalo this might not be the case. So, the Chiefs will have to revert to long drives like the ones they had against Denver to close out the season. Although those drives took longer, it wore out a pretty good Denver defense.
Eventually, the Bronco offense was unable to keep up. Kansas City will need to do this, especially to Buffalo, because they are outmatched on the defensive side of the football. Minimizing offensive possessions for Josh Allen will be critical if the Chiefs have a shot of making it back to the Superbowl.
I think Kansas City has what it takes to win and to cover -1.5. Home field is crucial in the playoffs, and I think the crowd along with Patrick Mahomes will be the main catalysts for a Chief victory Sunday Night.
Patrick Mahomes will need to rely heavily on Travis Kelce as he is a matchup problem for the Bills. His over/under for receiving yards is 70.5, which is tied for the most of any Kansas City pass catcher. Since Vegas knows, I’m going to roll with the fact that Travis Kelce will get a lot of action.
The Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) and Travis Kelce anytime touchdown (+105)
If you’re really feeling that pick, you might want to consider betting on Travis Kelce to score and Chiefs to win (+150).
Good luck this weekend bettors!
