ufc 272: Breakdown & predictions
Before I dive into the fights Id like to point out that this is a underwhelming UFC card compared to most UFC PPVs considering there is no title fight and Rafael Fiziev was replaced on the co-main event this past Monday due to covid but If you’re reading this you’re probably a fellow UFC fan or gambling degenerate like myself so lets get into it.
UFC 272 features 2 of the welterweight “bad boys” Colby Covington (16-3) and Jorge Masvidal (35-15) Saturday March 5th. Although this card has some solid matchups this is definitely a weak headline considering both of these guys have lost 2x each to the current champ Kamaru Usman and really haven’t beaten anyone good since 2019. These guys do have some bad blood though as they used to be teammates and train together but apparently Covington bailed on his old coaching staff and stiffed them on some money which has caused tension between former teammates. I dont know what’s true but Covington seems like a McGregor wannabe and Masvidal seems to chirp everyone he fights so their “beef” may just be all for show.
I think Masvidal is very overrated as he had some amazing highlight KO’s back in 2019 against some washed up fighters who arent in their prime anymore Nate Diaz, Ben Askren (who got KO’d by Jake Paul in boxing), and Darren Till (who’s lost 3 of his last 4). Masvidal got dominated by Usman twice and I think Covington’s wrestling is going to make this fight very difficult for Masvidal. Covington’s cardio is insane and unless Masvidal tags him early, this fight is going to slip away from him after the first round or two.
Current odds:
Covington: -345
Masvidal: +276
Prediction:
I think Masvidal has the heavier hands but Covington is going play this smart and utilize his wrestling and cardio to drag this fight out 5 rounds.
Colby Covington by decision -135
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Co-main event
Rafael Dos Anjos (30-13) vs Renato Moicano (16-4-1)
Dos Anjos has been in the UFC since 2008 and has some elite Brazilian Jiu-jitsu. He’s fought almost everyone in the division and was lightweight champion in 2015 for about a year. Moicano steps in for Fiziev on just 5 days notice and Ive honestly never seen him fight but looking at record he’s had some notable wins over Cub Swanson, Calvin Kattar, and Jeremy Stephens.
Moicano seems to have a good grappling game also considering how many submission wins he has so I dont anticipate Dos Anjos to have a massive advantage anywhere. Taking a fight on short notice is a difficult task but I dont think Dos Anjos has ever impressed me with his striking.
Current odds:
Rafael Dos Anjos: -180
Renato Moicano: +150
Prediction:
I think both fighters recognize that they both have elite jiu-jitsu and will keep this fight standing. Give me the guy who’s been preparing for this fight for 2 months vs 5 days
Dos Anjos by decision: +150
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Edson Barboza (22-10) vs Bryce Mitchell (14-1)
This is a very interesting fight as Bryce “Thug Nasty” tries to stay undefeated in the UFC (5-0 since his debut in 2018) against savvy veteran Edson Barboza who is definitely Mitchell’s toughest fight to date.
Barboza has a Muay Thai background and has some impressive wins in his career including Ws Dan Hooker, Beneil Dariush, Anthony Pettis, and Paul Felder. However he’s now 36 years old, 2-4 since 2019.
Mitchell has a wrestling background and has dominated most of his opponents with his superior grappling through his first 5 UFC fights. Mitchell hasn’t really fought anyone close to Barboza’s caliber so if he pulls off the win the hype is real and he will be ranked in the top 10 in the Featherweight class.
Current Odds:
Bryce Mitchell (-155)
Edson Barboza (+125)
Prediction:
Barboza has a lot of experience and has a significant advantage in striking, but Mitchell has the upper hand in grappling. Pick your poison here: Striking or Grappling?
I really like Bryce Mitchell and his wrestling is elite but I think Barboza’s experience is going to come in play here.
Barboza +125
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Kevin Holland (21-7) vs Alex Oliveira (22-11-1)
This has big potential to be fight of the night. Both of these guys are flashy strikers with big personalities, especially Holland who is notorious for talking to his opponents during the fight with a smile whether he’s winning or losing. Holland has quickly become a fan favorite after going 5-0 in 2020 but was exposed in 2021 (0-2) after facing top contenders Marvin Vettori and Derek Brunson who both dominated Holland with their wrestling. Fortunate for Holland, Oliveira isnt a great grappler so I expect these guys to slug it out on their feet for most of the fight.
Current odds:
Kevin Holland: -385
Alex Oliveira: +300
Prediction:
I think Holland is due for a bounce back Win here as he shouldnt have to worry about takedowns as much as he did in his last 2 fights against #4 and #6 ranked fighters in Middleweight division.
Give me Holland by TKO/KO -105
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Sergey Spivak (13-3) vs Greg Hardy (7-4)
Former NFL Defensive End Greg Hardy returns to the octagon again after losing 2 fights by KO. I dont know much about Spivak but most heavyweights that arent top contenders have awful stamina and I cant see either guy lasting 15 minutes.
