NFC South Season Outlook - Six Pack Coverage

By: Grant

NFC South Season Betting Outlook

This dual forecast might be the easiest one to predict in the entire league. In fact, since this bet opened (last Spring around March/April), this pick has moved from -110 to -225. You can look at that in one of two ways. First, you might think that you lost your value in this bet since the odds have moved so much. On the other hand, you can think that Vegas knows that Tom Brady and the Bucs will easily be in the top tier of this division along with a much-improved Saints team.

First off, the GOAT has decided to come back for yet another season. I know that time conquers all in terms of the NFL, but I guess Tom Brady is the one exception to that. Last season, he had one of the best of his entire career at age 44. He was first in the league in passing yards (5,316) and passing touchdowns (43). Although Tampa lost Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski, the offense will still be fine. I don’t see a situation where Brady having the weapons (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette) that he does and one of the top defenses in the league will somehow either miss the playoffs entirely or not be in the top two of a rather weak NFC South.

Now, you could say that I am biased with this prediction. However, it is undeniable that the Saints will be a better team than they were last season. Injuries destroyed what could have been another playoff season for New Orleans. The Saints missed star Wide-Receiver Michael Thomas for the entire season, and it showed with former Vol Marquez Callaway becoming the WR1. Additionally, Jameis Winston was having a pretty good season before he tore his ACL. That is likely because the Saints didn’t let him throw the ball as much as he did with Tampa Bay, but it is unquestionable that there were visible improvements in his game from sitting on the bench to learn from future Hall-of-Famer Drew Brees for a season. To put it into perspective, Callaway (who was WR1 last year) will likely become WR4 at best due to the return of Michael Thomas and additions of Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry. Outside of all of that, this year the Saints defense is going to be just as good as they were a year ago. They lost Marcus Williams, but added Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye. Demario Davis, Marshon Lattimore, and Cam Jordan are all still down in the Bayou and will wreak havoc with Dennis Allen getting promoted to head coach from the defensive coordinator position.

Outside of Tampa Bay and New Orleans, the other two teams are not likely to pose much of a threat. Atlanta is in the running to have the first overall pick in next year’s draft. Furthermore, Carolina won’t wake up feeling dangerous just because they added Baker Mayfield. Maybe one, or both, of these two bottom feeders will be good in the near future, but I can assure you that this won’t happen in the upcoming season.

MY BET: DUAL FORECAST: SAINTS/BUCCANEERS -225

This means that I am betting on the Saints and Buccaneers to be in the top two division in either order. So, if the Saints win the division and the Buccaneers come in second place I win. If the Buccaneers win the division and the Saints come in second place I win. The only way this bet loses is if either the Atlanta Falcons or the Carolina Panthers finish in the top two of their division.