NBA Prop Bets 03/7/2022
Jimmy Butler UNDER 5.5 Assists (+105 DK)
Jimmy Butler is averaging 5.7 APG this season and gets a matchup vs the worst defense in the entire league tonight, so you’re probably asking yourself why we would ever bet an UNDER on his assists… FAIR QUESTION, here’s why: even without Kyle Lowry in the lineup for the last several games, Butler’s been trending down in a big way on his assist numbers. He has gone under 5.5 assists in 5 straight and 11 of his last 12 games. His potential assists are way down as well, he averages 11.2 potential assists per game for the season, but that number has plummeted to only 6.4 potential assists per game since the all star break, which essentially means every shot off a Jimmy Butler pass would need to go in for him to get 6 assists. The other obvious factor here is game script – the Heat are a monster 15 point favorite in this game. With the Rockets on the second leg of a back-to-back and the Heat having 3 tough games against the Suns-Cavs-Wolves later this week, this definitely looks like a spot where Coach Spo may try and give vets like Butler some extra rest here. Trust the numbers, trust the process and take Jimmy Butts under 5.5 assists.
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