wEEK 13 NFL Picks
By: Grant Poarch
Last week sure was profitable, wasn’t it? On both the money line and spread, I went 11-5. That brings my overall record on the season to 111-69 on the money line and 94-86 on the spread. This week, I am planning on cooking once again so lock in while you can. With that said, fade me at your own risk and tail me at your inevitable benefit. The odds listed are provided by DraftKings.
11/30 (TNF): Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys (-8.5, O/U 47.5), 8:15PM EST, Prime Video
Dallas is coming into this one riding a three game winning streak and in that streak have looked like true contenders. That seems to be the story with this team every year, but we haven’t reached the playoffs yet so we can give the Cowboys a break for now. In their last three games, they have won each by at least 23 points. Sure, they beat up on some teams that are worse than they are. Still, that’s what good teams are supposed to do.
With the way Seattle has played lately, the Cowboys should feast once again. Last week, the Seahawks allowed six sacks and had their starting right tackle (Jason Peters) get injured during the 31-13 loss to the 49ers.
The Seahawks are a solid team but they are not on the Cowboys’ level. I see Dallas continuing to roll tonight to set up a huge showdown against the Eagles next week.
Prediction: Dallas wins, Dallas covers -8.5
12/3: Detroit Lions (-4) @ New Orleans Saints, O/U 46, 1:00PM EST, FOX
I am so disappointed in the Saints. Their loss to Atlanta last week was absolutely pathetic. While they will likely win the next two games after this (Panthers and Giants), they are going to get killed by the Lions.
One thing that could keep this game close is the turnover battle. In the last two games for the Lions, they have struggled because Jared Goff has turned the ball over six times. Getting turnovers is the strength of the Saints’ defense.
However, can New Orleans do anything with those turnovers? That seems unlikely as they were held out of the end zone last week and they didn’t score at all off the two turnovers they got a week ago. As much as I’d like to see the upset happen, I’m not feeling good about this one.
Prediction: Detroit wins, Detroit covers -4
12/3: Indianapolis Colts (-1) @ Tennessee Titans, O/U 42.5, 1:00PM EST, CBS
While the Titans haven’t been great this season, they haven’t lost a game at home yet. To make things better for Tennessee, the Colts struggled big time against the run last week. That bodes well for a guy better known as “Derrick Henry”.
On the other side, their star running back (Jonathan Taylor) is having thumb surgery and will miss this game. That will severely hinder the abilities of what Gardner Minshew is able to do.
Both of these teams aren’t great, but I’m going to roll with the Titans and home-field advantage in this one.
Prediction: Tennessee wins, Tennessee covers +1
12/3: Los Angeles Chargers (-6) @ New England Patriots, O/U 41, 1:00PM EST, CBS
Both teams need a win this badly as they are coming off a three and four game losing streak, respectively. My mind is telling me to pick the Chargers but it never feels great when you have to do that. In this case, I feel as if I have no choice.
The Patriots have been uncharacteristically terrible this season. They have scored under eight points in back to back games to go along with their ugly 2-9 record. To make things worse, they lost to Tommy Devito last week.
New England gives me nothing to be confident in and no real weapons to worry about. On the other hand, Justin Herbert is a quality quarterback that can lead this team to at least 15 to 20 points. So, that should be enough to get the Chargers over the hump here.
Prediction: Los Angeles wins, Los Angeles covers -6
12/3: Atlanta Falcons (-2) @ New York Jets, O/U 34, 1:00PM EST, FOX
There is no doubt in my mind that this will be a low scoring game. It will feature Desmond Ridder against a Jets offense that has failed to put up 14 points in five straight games.
As much as I want to pick against Atlanta, I can’t bring myself to do it. The Jets are wildly incompetent on offense and cannot stop the run on defense.
All of that lines up for Atlanta to beat them. That being said, I don’t have a good record in picking Falcons game so take this how you will.
Prediction: Atlanta wins, Atlanta covers -2
12/3: Arizona Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, O/U 41), 1:00PM EST, CBS
Despite not being anywhere as talented as some of the other teams with similar records as them, Pittsburgh continues to win week after week. That likely won’t change this week either as Arizona is poverty this year.
One major reason the Steelers are going to continue to roll this week is their defense. They have allowed less than 21 points in each of their last seven games. As long as the offense has a pulse this week, Pittsburgh should come out on top here. Even if they don’t show up, they showed they are capable of winning a low scoring game as well as they beat the Bengals 16-10 last week.
Prediction: Pittsburgh wins, Pittsburgh covers -5.5
12/3: Miami Dolphins (-9.5) @ Washington Commanders, O/U 50, 1:00PM EST, FOX
Unless Miami falls asleep right before kickoff and doesn’t wake up until there’s a few minutes left in the game, the Dolphins will win this one easily.
This matchup features the highest scoring offense in the league against the league’s worst defense in points per game allowed. To make things worse for Washington, the Commanders have allowed 29 or more points in four of their last five games.
When you watch Washington, it looks like a train that is falling off the tracks but is holding on by a thread before a disaster. This week, the Dolphins are sure to push them closer to disaster.
Prediction: Miami wins, Miami covers -9.5
12/3: Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans (-3, O/U 47.5), 1:00PM EST, CBS
This one seems pretty tough to predict. Will Broncos’ country keep riding or will C.J. Stroud lead Houston to yet another victory?
The Broncos’ defense has held their opponents in the last six games to under 23 points. Will the Broncos’ offense be able to put up that number? Since Russell Wilson has improved like crazy under Sean Payton, I’m going to say yes to that one.
I’m taking experience and coaching over the young stud here. Houston’s pass defense against Trevor Lawrence was awful and they didn’t get a single sack a week ago. That seems to bode well for Denver.
I’m taking the rush attack and Sean Payton/Russell Wilson in this one.
Prediction: Denver wins, Denver covers +3
12/3: Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5, O/U 37), 4:05PM EST, CBS
Carolina’s awful season got worse this week as they fired their head coach (Frank Reich). Maybe that makes things better because things were going so poorly. However, with a rookie QB, the instability is likely to make the situation worse in the short term.
In their last six games, the Panthers have scored less than 16 points. Things won’t get easier as Tampa is likely to get a lot of pressure on Bryce Young as he has been bullied all year long.
The way I see it, if Tampa Bay takes care of the football, they will get a much-needed win.
Prediction: Tampa Bay wins, Tampa Bay covers -5
12/3: Cleveland Browns @ Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, O/U 40), 4:25PM EST, FOX
Despite a solid record so far this season, I’m not sure how good the Browns truly are. Yes, they are 7-4 but their offense is anemic. They have scored less than 14 points in back to back games. A large part of that has to do with their quarterback situation. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been starting the last few games for the Browns. He hasn’t been playing great this year as he has just one touchdown to four interceptions. To make things worse for the Cleveland offense, they have turned the ball over the second most in the league with 23 turnovers so far this season.
As for the game, the Browns will have their hands full on offense as the Rams have been pretty good against the pass. On the other passing side, Matt Stafford had a good week last week as he threw for four touchdowns against the Cardinals. He did all of this despite Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua only combining for 45 yards receiving.
Look for Stafford to get the ball out quickly to those two this week as he is going to have to deal with Myles Garrett and a great Cleveland secondary. The good news for the RRmas, though, is that Garrett left last week’s game in a sling. If he is unable to go, Stafford will have all the time in the world to make the right decisions as he did a week ago.
As good as the Browns’ defense is, the offense will hold them back too much to win this game.
Prediction: Los Angeles wins, Los Angeles covers -3.5
12/3: San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles, O/U 47, 4:25PM EST, FOX
This has got to be the best game of the week. I will drop whatever I’m doing to watch this one. Vegas is scaring me by having San Francisco as the favorite. What do they know that I don’t?
You would think that the Eagles would be favored at home against anyone in the league. Sure, they do have weaknesses in certain areas in pass defense but Philly will show up this week.
This will no doubt be the best game this week. I feel bad in picking against either team because they are both so good. In this one, I feel like I have to take Philly. They have been the most consistent team all year and I’m sure they will feed off of the home environment. Give me the Eagles in a close one.
Prediction: Philadelphia wins. Philadelphia covers +3
12/3 (SNF): Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) @ Green Bay Packers, O/U 42.5, 8:20PM EST, NBC
This game seems bad on paper but with it being in the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, anything can happen. That’s especially true when Jordan Love plays the way he has the last two weeks.
On the other side, Mahomes had a solid game in leading the Chiefs to a bounce back win over the Raiders. To make things better for Kansas City, Travis Kelce seemed to reemerge as he got 91 yards receiving. In his previous three games, he had less than 60 yards receiving in each contest. If the Chiefense stays afloat and Mahomes finds Kelce often, Kansas City should win this one.
Although the Packers have surprised me the last two weeks with wins over both the Chargers and Lions, I would be stunned if they took down the Chiefs. All that said, I’ll definitely be watching this one.
Prediction: Kansas City wins, Kansas City covers -5.5
12/4 (MNF): Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-9, O/U 38), 8:15PM EST, ABC/ESPN
If Joe Burrow hadn’t been injured a few weeks ago, this one would have been a great primetime game. As a result of the injury, Jacksonville is going to roll here. The main reason for that is that backup QB Jake Browning won’t be able to keep up with Trevor Lawrence and the rest of the Jacksonville offense.
Last week, the Bengals allowed 278 yards passing to Kenny Pickett. While they allowed just 16 points against the Steelers, the previous statistic does not bode well for Cincinnati.
Simply put, the Bengals are screwed without Joe Burrow. That will continue to prove itself here in an ugly fashion.
Prediction: Jacksonville wins, Jacksonville covers -9