Week 10 sec picks and predictions
By: Grant Poarch
If you tailed a week ago, you’re welcome. For the first time this season, I was perfect. I went 5-0 on the money line as well as 5-0 on the spread. That brings my overall record on the season to 62-15 on the money line and 33-31 on the spread.
UConn @ #19 Tennessee (-35, O/U 53.5), 12:00PM EST, SECN
This one will be a much-needed walk in the park for the Vols. There is no doubt they will win this game. UConn has struggled mightily this year as they have gone 1-7 on the year. Their lone victory of the year was against Rice. If you need any more explanation as to why Tennessee is going to win this one, then I have nothing more to tell you.
Tennessee outmatches UConn along both lines of scrimmage and will show that early and often. This game will be over by halftime and Nico Iamaleava will likely get a lot of action in this one.
As for the spread, it is a massive number. However, for reasons I just stated and many others it won’t be a problem for the Vols. Oh yeah, this game is being played in Neyland Stadium, too.
Prediction: Tennessee wins, Tennessee covers -35
Texas A&M @ #11 Ole Miss (-3, O/U 53.5), 12:00PM EST, ESPN
Have the Aggies done enough to be just three-point underdogs in this game? I’m not sure that they have. Every single year the Aggies disappoint. I can’t think of a program that does less with more. To make things worse for them this week, this is another road game. In true road games, the Aggies have lost each time dating back to the 2021 matchup against Missouri.
This game will be no different than other SEC games for Texas A&M this season. In each game, the Aggies were competitive. That is true even against Alabama. The difference for Texas A&M in their SEC wins and losses is the strength of competition. They (normally) beat the teams they are supposed to beat and they lose to the teams they are supposed to lose.
While Vegas expects Texas A&M to lose, they simply don’t have the number right. The strength for Texas A&M comes from their defense. Are they capable of slowing down Ole Miss enough to win this game. Yes, they are. However, Ole Miss is way too strong offensively this year to get stopped completely. Jaxson Dart will make enough plays to extend drives and Quinshon Judkins will do enough in the ground game to keep the passing lanes open for Dart. Look for the Rebels to make it three in a row over the Aggies.
Prediction: Ole Miss wins, Ole Miss covers -3
Arkansas @ Florida (-3.5, O/U 49), 12:00PM EST, ESPN2
The number in this game opened at six-points in favor of Florida. I’m not exactly sure why Arkansas is considered this close to Florida, especially on the road. Although Arkansas has played some close games, they have yet to win a road game this season. To make things worse, they are on an interim offensive coordinator. That may be a good thing, but the inconsistency of coaching in the middle of the season is not.
One thing that could be going in Arkansas’ favor is Florida being in a “look-ahead” spot. They are going to go on the road to play LSU next weekend and were just destroyed by Georgia. I’m not sure exactly how much a “look-ahead” game applies to a 5-3 team but what do I know.
What I do know is Arkansas is a total mess right now. Florida, while nowhere near where they want to be, is still much better than Arkansas. Getting the Gators at this number is well worth the odds. That is especially after a line movement like the one this game has had.
Prediction: Florida wins, Florida covers -3.5
Jacksonville State @ South Carolina (-15, O/U 55), 12:00PM EST, ESPNU
The fact that the line on this game is only 15.5 in favor of South Carolina is a sad thing for the Gamecocks. Expectations in Columbia have juristically shifted since the beginning of the season. They really thought after back-to-back upsets over Tennessee and Clemson that they would contend for the SEC East. Now, the only thing they are truly contending for is a 4-8 season. Maybe this is karma for being involved with the Michigan cheating scandal. Then again, maybe it’s not.
As it relates to this game, I would be stunned if South Carolina loses. Beyond just that, if the game is as close as the spread indicates it will be, I will also be stunned. Hopefully, for South Carolina’s sake, they will win this game comfortably. I think they will, but they won’t win by as much as they really should. It should be over by halftime and be a 40-point win. This one won’t be that, but South Carolina will win and cover anyway.
Prediction: South Carolina wins, South Carolina covers -15
#14 Missouri @ #1 Georgia (-15, O/U 55.5), 3:30PM EST, CBS
This is your classic Georgia beating the shit out of someone that is coming into the game capable of stopping them from getting to either the SEC Championship or playoff. Georgia is going to humble Missouri back to the middle of the road SEC football school that they are. There is no doubt in my mind Georgia will win this game.
I would say stuff about stats and how they lean towards Georgia in this one but frankly I don’t care about that in this matchup. Georgia will win this game comfortably. Period.
Prediction: Georgia wins, Georgia covers -15
Auburn (-12.5) @ Vanderbilt, O/U 49, 4:00PM EST, SECN
Vanderbilt’s home field “advantage” is about worse than a Texas high school home environment. While Auburn is nowhere as good as they are normally or what they should be, they will win this game comfortably.
Auburn showed last week that they do indeed have a pulse. Even after a 3-4 start, they were still able to beat a SEC TEAM. Sure, Mississippi State is not the most formidable opponent. However, they are still much better than Vanderbilt.
This will be a glorified home game for Auburn. I’m sure Auburn fans will relish the opportunity to go watch their team in Nashville. Nashville is way too expensive and low-key overhyped for me but I see the fun appeal though.
Prediction: Auburn wins, Auburn covers -12.5
Kentucky (-4.5) @ Mississippi State, O/U 46, 7:30PM EST, SECN
If Kentucky throws the ball the way they did a week ago, they will win this game easily. I was at the Tennessee-Kentucky game a week ago and the Vols made Devin Leary look like a Heisman candidate when he has been mid all season long. I guess that more so of a Vol special than anything else. Regardless, Hail State won’t do any better.
The Bulldogs have no offense at all. Their defense is average at best to compliment the offense. This one really depends on if Hail State has the home environment that they are capable of having. I know I have mentioned the home environment for several teams multiple teams but it is catamount to victories in the SEC so get over it.
The thing that makes me pick Kentucky in this game is their offense. Ray Davis is sure to bounce back after a poor week against Tennessee. On top of that, Leary will continue his success from a week ago. I wish I could say I have confidence in Mississippi State here, but I really can’t say that with genuine confidence.
Prediction: Kentucky wins, Kentucky covers -4.5
#13 LSU @ #8 Alabama (-3, O/U 60.5), 7:45PM EST, CBS
I am more than looking forward to this one. Alabama is coming into this one as the home team looking for revenge once again. It seemed to work out well for them against Tennessee, in the second half, when they were in this scenario a few weeks ago.
This game will be completely different in terms of play style than it was against Tennessee. Unlike Tennessee, LSU is an offensive powerhouse. They will score nearly at will in this game. The problem for the Tigers is clearly their defense. The catalyst for LSU to win this one is to hold Alabama to field goals instead of touchdowns after they hit a big passing play.
On the other side, Alabama will win if they can control the time of possession and limit the number of times the ball is in Jayden Daniels hands. In short, if they make LSU score touchdowns every drive, this will be tough for LSU to win.
Recently, in games where good offenses play good defenses, the offense has come out on top. Call me crazy but I’m going with the trend here. I see LSU having their way offensively and being able to pressure Jalen Milroe into enough mistakes to give them the edge.
Prediction: LSU wins, LSU covers +3