Week 10 NFL Picks
By: Grant Poarch
For your sake, I hope you trailed my picks last week. It was yet another profitable week. For the first time, I actually did better in predicting the spread than the money line. A week ago, I went 11-3 on the money line and 12-2 on the spread. That brings my overall record on the year to 85-51 on the money line and 69-67 on the spread. If this week is anything like the previous two weeks, you would be wise to lock in these picks to destroy whatever sports book or bookie you use. With that said, fade me at your own risk and tail me at your benefit. The odds listed are provided by DraftKings.
11/2 (TNF): Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears (-3.5, O/U 38.5), 8:15PM EST, Prime Video
The schedule makers must really hate us. This game being in primetime is such a joke. What makes this matchup even worse is that Chicago QB Justin Fields will be missing this one as he is still dealing with a thumb injury. Instead of what could’ve been an interesting, young QB matchup between Justin Fields and Bryce Young… we have Tyson Bagent against Bryce Young. Let’s just hope this one isn’t the South Park little league baseball game that it is looking like it will be (South Park season 9, episode 5 if you don’t understand).
With all that said, I can’t bring myself to pick the Panthers. They have been absolutely awful this year and I have no idea how they beat the Texans in their lone win this year. On the other side, Tyson Bagent hasn’t exactly been a superstar for the Bears. While he did look solid in his debut in leading the Bears to a victory over the Raiders, he has looked awful since then.
The good news for the Bears is that they are playing the Panthers. On top of that, Bagent has shown some positive moments. If he can just manage the game and not force anything, the Bears will win. Like I said before, I can’t bring myself to pick the Panthers at all this season.
Prediction: Chicago wins, Chicago covers -3.5
11/12 (NFL International Series, Game in Frankfurt, Germany): Indianapolis Colts (-2) vs. New England Patriots, O/U 43, 9:30AM EST, NFL Network
Unlike a week ago, I’m not sure this one will be worth waking up for. The Patriots have been unusually terrible and the Colts aren’t exactly world burners. Like the Thursday night game, you basically just have to pick the team that is less bad.
To me, Indianapolis is less bad. The Patriots have been competitive time and time again in games but they always find a way to lose. On the other side, the Colts looked solid in their win over the Panthers last week.
For me, I’m going with Gardner Minshew and the Colts over Mac Jones’ Patriots. Jones has been atrocious this year he has a 10-9 touchdown to interception ratio. Worse than that, he has people believing that Bill Belichick is a fraud.
Prediction: Indianapolis wins, Indianapolis covers -2
11/12: New Orleans Saints (-3) @ Minnesota Vikings, O/U 41, 1:00PM EST, FOX
Will Josh Dobbs know all of his offensive lineman’s names at this point? Let’s hope so. Despite that, Dobbs impressed the entire league last week as he was traded from the Cardinals to the Vikings. Rookie QB Jaren Hall made the start but had to exit the game due to a concussion. After that, Dobbs entered the game with nearly no knowledge of how the offense operates. That didn’t matter, though, as he lead the Vikings to a 31-28 win over the Falcons.
This week will be a bit different. New Orleans has feasted on QBs as they lead the league with 12 interceptions in nine games. I see that being a major factor in this game. The Saints have feasted on mid QBs this year and will likely do so again with Josh Dobbs. While Dobbs was impressive a week ago, he is going to revert to what he truly is.
On the other side, Derek Carr has finally turned this Saints’ offense around. It may be in big part to the offensive line finally giving him time to process his reads but regardless it is a great thing to see. I didn’t think we’d see this after Carr was yelling at receivers just a few weeks ago.
Overall, the Saints are a better team and it will show. If the Vikings had Cousins and Jefferson healthy, this would be a different story. Unfortunately for Minnesota, their winning streak ends here.
Prediction: New Orleans wins, New Orleans covers -3
11/12: Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, O/U 47), 1:00PM EST, CBS
This one should be more interesting than you might think. Yes, the Bengals are hot and by far the more experienced team. However, what C.J. Stroud has done so far this year is remarkable. He is by far and away the runaway favorite to win Rookie of the Year. If Stroud leads the Texans to a win this week, we should all but hand the ROTY trophy to him.
As for the game, I see the Bengals continuing their hot streak. This is in major part due to Joe Burrow going against the weak pass rush of the Texans. Houston is a bottom-feeder when it comes to pressure percentage. That showed a week ago as they only record two sacks and also gave up 37 points to Baker Mayfield.
Look for great QB play in this one, but I’m going with experience here.
Prediction: Cincinnati wins, Houston covers +6.5
11/12: Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, O/U 39), 1:00PM EST, CBS
Despite their impressive win over the Rams a week ago, the Packers are going to come back to Earth this week. The Pittsburgh defense will be able to pressure Jordan Love early and often. Even though Love wasn’t under much pressure a week ago, he was sacked four times against the Rams. That smells like a big day for the Steeler defense is looming.
Beyond that, Pittsburgh finds ways to win. They have been outgained in each game this season, yet they are 5-3. This is a testament to how good of a coach Mike Tomlin is. Tomlin along with the Steeler defense holding down Jordan Love will be the catalysts to another win.
On top of everything, this game being in Pittsburgh is huge. While Pittsburgh is a great home advantage, it is even better for the Steelers that they don’t have to go to Lambeau Field.
Prediction: Pittsburgh wins, Pittsburgh covers -3
11/12: Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, O/U 38.5), 1:00PM EST, CBS
Just when I thought Tampa might go and do something good this year, meaning have a chance a winning the division, they go and pull a stunt like last week. I know C.J. Stroud looks legit. If you are Tampa Bay’s defense, how in the world do you give up 470 yards passing and five touchdowns with no interceptions to a rookie QB?
While that question remains to be answered, I would be stunned if the Bucs give up that big of a passing day to Will Levis. Levis has played well so far, so he is more than due to have a bad game. Tampa needs a bounce back. To me, this will be that bounce back for the Bucs.
On the other side of the ball, the Titans struggled in a big way to stop the run against the Titans. Rachaad White is nowhere near Derrick Henry’s level, but he is a good RB. If he is able to run like Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay will extend drives and make Levis’ job even harder.
Prediction: Tampa Bay wins, Tampa Bay covers -1
11/12: San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars, O/U 45, 1:00PM EST, FOX
Either way this game goes, a streak will be broken. The 49ers have lost three in a row while the Jaguars have won five straight. Based on that, I’m sure a lot of people are confused that San Francisco is favored. As for me, I am not surprised at all. San Francisco, despite their losing streak, is one of the best teams in the league. Their losing streak will be an afterthought when they start winning games again. One thing that will help them do that this week is the fact that they are coming off a bye week. I’m sure Coach Shanahan and the boys have been fixing the issues in the meantime.
Another thing that might help out the 49ers is their fanbase. They are one of the few teams that has fans everywhere. There will be a considerable amount of niner red in the stadium. That will take away from what Duval is able to do in impacting the San Francisco offense.
Even if Jacksonville had one of the best home environments in the league, they would still have their hands full with the weapons on the 49er offense. If Brock Purdy can manage his turnovers, I see San Francisco winning this one. I think he does so and it is more than due for the 49ers to go off in a game.
Prediction: San Francisco wins, San Francisco covers -3
11/12: Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-6, O/U 38), 1:00PM EST, FOX
Let’s hope this divisional rivalry game isn’t as boring as the last one was. The last time these two matched up, the Ravens won 28-3. Don’t get me wrong. The Ravens are a really good team but are they really 25 points better than the Browns?
The clear and obvious answer to that question is “no”. However, the difference between these two squads will be on full display once again. The Ravens are scorching hot and until they drop one it is going to be extremely hard to pick against them.
One thing that is going to make this game a lot closer than the first edition of this game is Deshaun Watson. He missed the first game with an injury but in his return a week ago he looked solid against the Cardinals. The Cardinals aren’t close to the Ravens defensively, so don’t expect Deshaun Cosby to do well again this week. Give me the Ravens until otherwise proven.
Prediction: Baltimore wins, Cleveland covers +6.5
11/12: Atlanta Falcons (-2) @ Arizona Cardinals, O/U 43, 4:05PM EST, CBS
The line here has to indicate that Kyler Murray is playing this week. According to rotowire.com, “Murray isn’t listed Wednesday on the Cardinals’ first Week 10 injury report.” Given that this report is accurate, this game could be a lot more interesting than when we first saw it on the schedule.
As for the QB on Atlanta’s side, Desmond Ridder will continue to ride the bench as Arthur Smith said that Taylor Heinicke will remain the starting QB this week. Regardless, Atlanta is not very good.
Both sides here stink and it is hard for me to predict as a result. I have been wrong when I pick Atlanta to win and I have been wrong when I pick Atlanta to lose. For the Saints sake, I’m going to take the Falcons to win. Even though Kyler Murray is returning most likely, I see him struggling as his injury is a tough one to come back from.
Prediction: Atlanta wins, Atlanta covers -2
11/12: Detroit Lions (-3) @ Los Angeles Chargers, O/U 48.5, 4:05PM EST, CBS
To me, this smells funny. I’m not sure how the Lions are only favored by three here. Although the Chargers have won two in a row, it was against the Bears and Jets. Los Angeles has talent but they are sure to be humbled when they play Detroit.
Amon Ra St. Brown is going to have a field day. The Chargers are ranked last in the league in passing yards allowed. If Goff gets going, along with a stout Detroit defense, then the Lions are going to have their way.
I don’t see anything that would indicate that what I just said won’t happen. Isn’t it fun seeing the Lions be good now?
Prediction: Detroit wins, Detroit covers -3
11/12: New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-17, O/U 38.5), 4:25PM EST, FOX
This one is just depressing when you look at the line. I’m not a Giants fan, but when you see a huge spread in a divisional game you know you are in for a boring game. Dallas will cruise in this one.
To make things worse for the Giants, Tommy DeVito is going to be starting at QB. The last time we saw him play, he threw for one touchdown and two interceptions in a 30-6 blowout loss against the Raiders. That in and of itself should be proof that the Giants are getting killed on Sunday. Not much else needs to be said. Cowboys will roll.
Prediction: Dallas wins, Dallas covers -17
11/12: Washington Commanders @ Seattle Seahawks (-6, O/U 45.5), 4:25PM EST, FOX
I would much rather watch the Lions-Chargers game than the absolute mid-off that this game is going to be. Geno Smith has been playing like the Jets version of himself and Sam Howell hasn’t been great.
This game being in Seattle helps my prediction but not as much as I’d like for it to. Both teams have been inconsistent. However, the Seahawks are the more talented team. With that along with being at home against an inconsistent team makes me believe the Seahawks are going to win this game. As for the spread, you might be better off taking the other side of what I do.
Prediction: Seattle wins, Washington covers +6.5
11/12 (SNF): New York Jets (-1) @ Las Vegas Raiders, O/U 36, 8:20PM EST, NBC
I love one-point spreads. It makes my job so much easier. In this one, my mind is telling me to take the Jets because they are a better team all-around. On the other hand, my heart wants to see the Raiders win because of how high the team vibes seem to be after letting go of former Head Coach Josh McDaniels.
In this one, the question you have to ask yourself is are you going to ride with vibes or a roster? I’m going with the roster. In case you didn’t catch that, I’m going with the Jets. The main reason for this is that the Raiders are starting Aidan O’Connell. I think he is going to struggle in big ways against this high quality Jets defense. If Zach Wilson can take care of the ball, the Jets win this one with ease.
Prediction: New York wins, New York covers -1
11/13 (MNF): Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills (-7.5, O/U 47), 8:15PM EST, ABC/ESPN
The schedule makers have to hate us. Sure, the Broncos were supposed to be better this year than they are right now. Still, there were a lot better options for Monday Night Football than this.
Denver has been better in their last two games than they were towards the beginning of the season but the Bills are a different beast. Are the Bills in the top two or three teams in the league? No, but what they are is a future playoff team that anyone will be sweating going against.
Josh Allen should have his way and lead the Bills to a much-needed bounce back victory.
Prediction: Buffalo wins, Buffalo covers -7.5