Week 4 College Football Picks
BY: Grant
Week 4 SEC Picks and Predictions
What in the world is going on in the SEC? With how crazy this season has been so far,
I’m starting to think the college football season as a whole will be 2007 revamped. Outside of the
three conference games, the conference went 6-2. That is an improvement on previous weeks,
but the competition also has gone down significantly out of conference with conference play
beginning last week.
As for the results of last week, it was a puzzling week to say the least. Tennessee looked
lethargic on offense in a loss to Florida. LSU handled Mississippi State in Starkville. Georgia
struggled again in the first half as they had to pull away late in the second half against South
Carolina in Athens. Alabama was tied with five minutes to go in the third quarter against USF
and had to use two quarterbacks to beat the Bulls in Tampa by a score of 17-3. Missouri hit a 61-
yard field goal as time expired after getting a delay of game penalty to back the attempt up five
more yards with less than ten seconds to go. After one of the longest field goals in college
football history, Missouri stormed the field. It’s safe to say that last week is one SEC fans will
remember for a while.
I know I was just talking about remembering things, but one thing I’d like to forget is
how my predictions went last week. Good thing the article didn’t make it up on the site last week
because it would have lost you money more than likely. Last week, I went 7-4 on the money line
and an abysmal 2-7 on the spread. That brings my overall record to 31-8 on the money line and
10-16 on the spread. Like my NFL predictions, maybe y’all should just tail my money line
predictions and fade the spread ones. Regardless, tail me at your benefit and fade me at your
expense. The odds listed are provided by DraftKings.
Auburn @ Texas A&M (-8.5, O/U 52), 12:00PM EST, ESPN
This line is very interesting to me. When you look at the history of this game since Texas
A&M joined the SEC, the road team has won 8 out 11 matchups. Good thing for Texas A&M is
that the home team has won both of the last two matchups.
This will no doubt be Auburn’s biggest test yet as the best team they have played thus far
is California. At least Auburn has experience on the road as they had to travel across the country
to play the Golden Bears. They will have to play much better in College Station this weekend as
they squeaked out a 14-10 victory against California.
In this one, I see a Texas A&M choke incoming. On the field, they should have the
advantage. They have 10 five-star players while Auburn has none. The Aggies are holding
opponents to less than 100 yards rushing per game, so Auburn may have to go for the passing
game to win this one. Auburn QB Payton Thorne hasn’t been great in the air as he has thrown for
just four touchdowns along with three interceptions. This game, for the sole reason that A&M’s
has struggled defensively, is why he along with the rest of Auburn will have a great game.
Prediction: Auburn wins, Auburn covers +8.5
Kentucky (-13.5) @ Vanderbilt, O/U 50, 12:00PM EST, SECN
Last year Vandy pulled off a stunning 24-21 upset victory over Kentucky last year in
Lexington. Vanderbilt hasn’t won two in a row in this series since current Penn State head coach
James Franklin was the head man in Nashville (last two wins in a row were 2012-13).
While Kentucky hasn’t impressed me this year, they are not going to drop this one to
Vanderbilt. The Commodores were a nice story when they were 2-0, but losses are due to come
in waves for the rest of the season for them. That being said, this spread seems large. Kentucky
has shown that they aren’t a fire power offense. So, I expect a low scoring affair in this one with
Kentucky winning a close one.
Prediction: Kentucky wins, Vanderbilt covers +13.5
15 Ole Miss @ #13 Alabama (-7, O/U 55), 3:30PM EST, CBS
Y’all better get your popcorn ready for this one. I’m sure Lane Kiffin is foaming at the
mouth over the opportunity to knock Bama out of college football playoff contention. Ole Miss
will put themselves in a seriously good position to win the SEC West if they can pull of this
upset.
Alabama has already lost this year at home. I can’t remember the last time Bama lost at
home twice in a season, but this is the year. This Tide team looks extremely weak compared to
expectations. Winning by just 14 against USF is not impressive in the slightest. Even if it isn’t
Ole Miss that hands Alabama their second loss, someone else will.
This game will be on the shoulders of Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart. He has played
exceptionally well this season as he has seven passing touchdowns to just one interception as
well as two rushing touchdowns on the ground. While his toughest test was against Tulane so far
this year, watch Dart go off in Tuscaloosa.
Fading Bama is very dangerous, but I don’t care. I hate them and I hope they lose by a
lot.
Prediction: Ole Miss wins, Ole Miss covers
UTSA @ #23 Tennessee (-23.5, O/U 56), 4:00PM EST, SECN
How will the Vols respond after being upset against Florida? The offense looked nothing
like it did a year ago and fans are more than upset with the results on the field. Tennessee really
needs this game as a springboard into the heart of their SEC schedule. With South Carolina and
Texas A&M coming to town in the two games following this, the Vols will have their hands full.
This is especially true if they don’t open the offense. It seems as if the only things the Vols like to
run is RPO and WR screens. As a current Tennessee student, please don’t make me pull out my
hair during this one.
Regardless of whether the offense is opened up, Tennessee will win this game
convincingly. If the offense is run conservatively, UTSA won’t be able to handle the run as they
gave up 254 yards rushing to Army a week ago. Look for Tennessee QB Joe Milton to have a
great game and for Nico to get some action as well.
Prediction: Tennessee wins, Tennessee covers -23.5
Arkansas @ #12 LSU (-17.5, O/U 55), 7:00PM EST, ESPN
The Battle of the Golden Boot takes place in Baton Rouge this year as LSU comes into
this one with one loss but has looked strong since. On the other hand, Arkansas dropped a home
game against BYU last weekend by a score of 38-31.
If LSU QB Jayden Daniels plays anything like he did a week ago, LSU will blow out
Arkansas. They might be able to do that anyway. However, each of the last three seasons this
game has been separated by just three points. Ask LSU fans how they feel about Arkansas and
they will likely tell you something along the lines of “they play us tough for no reason every
year”.
On the field, LSU is far better than Arkansas. For no good reason at all, Arkansas will
cover but not win the game in the end.
Prediction: LSU wins, Arkansas covers +17.5
Charlotte @ #25 Florida (-28, O/U 51), 7:00PM EST, ESPN+ & SECN+
UF certainly stood their ground last week as they dominated Tennessee 29-16. Florida
QB Graham Mertz didn’t look good the first two games but then went off against Tennessee.
That’s very typical of the Vols. Anyway, Florida is very confident after their win going into this
one. Charlotte stands no chance and will likely be completely out of this game by halftime.
This spread seems low for a game like this. A non-power five opponent against a SEC
team at home is usually the underdog by 40. When you look at Charlotte’s schedule, you likely
will not be impressed. So far, they are 1-2 with losses by 18 to Maryland and by 16 to Georgia
State. Good luck in the Swamp, Charlotte!
Prediction: Florida wins, Florida covers -28
UAB @ #1 Georgia (-40.5, O/U 54), 7:30PM EST, ESPN2
I’m not sure this one is worth going over, but Georgia is still in the SEC so I’ve got to do
it. Although Georgia did struggle last week against South Carolina, they will have no such issues
against UAB. Don’t be surprised if UGA starts slow as they have all season, but they will win
this game comfortably in the end.
This spread is a lot and if I’m not mistaken I am 0-3 on predicting the spread so far in
Georgia games this season. So, take whatever I say on that with a grain of salt. Georgia will win
this game by more than 41. UAB has no chance of moving the ball. If Georgia wanted to they
could probably win this game by near 100 points. They do show signs of taking it easy on teams
like this, but I feel like Georgia is going to prove a point this week that they are a serious threat
to go for the three-peat.
Prediction: Georgia wins, Georgia covers -40.5
Memphis @ Missouri (-7, O/U 53.5), 7:30PM EST, ESPNU
Missouri is coming into this one high off a walk off 61-yard field goal that gave the
Tigers the upset over Kansas State. So, the question is, is Mizzou for real? In terms of going to
Atlanta I’d say no but in terms of playing undefeated Memphis I’d say the answer is yes. The
spread here being one score is questionable to me. Sure, Mizzou had a hiccup against MTSU
where they only won 23-19, but that team is not the Tigers’ identity.
Missouri runs through three guys on offense. Those being QB Brady Cook, RB Cody
Scharder, and WR Luther Burden III. Cook has five passing touchdowns with no interceptions
and three rushing touchdowns to add on to that. Schrader rushes for 5.5 yards per carry. Burden
looks like he could be in the NFL tomorrow. When you have those three guys going against a
defense that gave up over 400 yards against Navy a week ago in a 28-24 win, you can see where
my confidence comes in the Tigers in this one.
Prediction: Missouri wins, Missouri covers -7
Mississippi State @ South Carolina (-6, O/U 50), 7:30PM EST, SECN
If Hail State looks similar on offense like they did last week, Carolina will have no issues
in this one. That being said, South Carolina doesn’t have the front seven that LSU had to cause
Mississippi State QB Will Rogers to look like he didn’t belong on the field.
When you look at this matchup, this may be the most interesting of the weekend as it
relates to non-contending teams. Mississippi State’s expectations have dropped after being
dominated by LSU. South Carolina has already lost two games, so they will have nothing to lose
the rest of the season.
In this one, I’m concerned for Mississippi State’s case about what happened to their
offense a week ago. They were only able to get 107 yards passing and 94 yards rushing
throughout the entire game. When the Bulldogs go into an environment like Columbia, I’m not
sure things will get much better.
To make things worse for Hail State, they were shredded by LSU QB Jayden Daniels a
week ago as he threw for 361 yards and two touchdowns. If Mississippi State really has that big
of problems in the secondary, look for South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler to have a big day on
Saturday night.
Due to the struggles of Mississippi State, South Carolina will win this one easily.
Although, trusting South Carolina that much could be bad too. That’s why you play the games, I
guess.
Prediction: South Carolina wins, South Carolina covers -6
