Week 14 Player Props
Robby Anderson under 32.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Look who’s back, it’s our old friend Robby Anderson! If you have been a listener of the podcast all season, I am sure you are well aware that we have taken Robby Anderson under receiving yards several times this year, with great success, and we are going to ride the under again in Week 14! On paper, the matchup vs. the Atlanta Falcons secondary looks appealing, but this line is about 10 yards too high in our opinion. Despite some early season success with Sam Darnold, Robby has only topped 30 receiving yards once in the last 8 weeks. His target volume remains relatively low at 4 per game over his last 5, and we have reason to believe it may drop even lower, with Head Coach Matt Rhule firing Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady and saying he wants the team to “run the ball 33 times a game”. In 2 games with Cam Newton as the starting QB, Robby went 5-30 vs the Footballs and 1-15 vs the Dolphins (with his only reception coming on a pass late in the 4th quarter from backup QB, PJ Walker). We would play this under down to 27.5 yards and as alternate if this one drops out of range, you can also look at Robby Anderson under 16.5 longest reception, a line he has gone under 8 of his last 10 games, with the large majority of his targets coming close to the line of scrimmage.
Stefon Diggs over 81.5 receiving yards (widely available)
The Bills #1 WR has had a pretty quiet year, by his standards, but we love this as a potential blow-up game for Diggs. The Bills rushing attack has been pathetic this season and Tampa ranks as one of the best run defenses in the league, with Vita Vea clogging up the middle and several solid LB’s behind him. The way to beat Tampa is through the air and we expect Buffalo to employ a pass heavy game plan with Josh Allen dropping back 40+ times to pass. Diggs ranks top 5 in the league in air yards, unrealized air yards and leads this Bills team in targets by a wide margin. This Bucs secondary also just allowed Falcons WR1 Russell Gage to go for 11-130 last week and the week prior, Carson Wentz had his 2nd highest passing total of the season at 306 yards. This also sets up as a really nice game script for Diggs, as we expect the Bucs offense to put up a ton of points forcing the Bills to try and keep up, the total in the game is 53.5, which is the highest on the entire week by a wide margin and both offenses are top 10 in neutral game pace. Take Stefon Diggs to have a monster game and if the line moves on his receiving yards, we also like over 6.5 receptions at +money