The week ahead 04/10/2023
Already a third of the way through April.. where does the time go?
We’re not quite sure how the springtime moves so quickly — but it will be May before we know it!
Remember about the important deadlines coming up!
Tuesday April 18th is the tax filing deadline — check out this helpful link to see if your state has a different filing day (i.e. Iowa and Virginia do)
Your state also may have experienced a natural disaster, which could have led to the tax deadline being extended (i.e. New York snowstorms or Mississippi tornadoes)
Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) also see their deadlines fall on the same day as taxes. Remember that if you’re taking an extension or have been given one due to natural disasters — your retirement account deadline does not change.
401(k) plans are a bit different — with the last day for contributions being the end of each calendar year.
Takeaway — take some time this week to make sure your retirement investments are in the right spot.
If you haven’t yet begun investing toward your Roth IRA, here’s my referral link with Betterment — when you use it, they’ll waive management fees for 12 months.
One Interesting Observation:
We loved this anecdote on Twitter — talking about the upcoming shift of wealth from Baby Boomers to Gen X (Born 1965-1980) or the older end of Millennials (1981-1996).
It took around 15 years for the wealth transfer from the Silent Generation to the Baby Boomers — how long will the next take? Will you personally be taking part in any of that value transition?
Key Earnings Announcements:
Friday is a bank earnings palooza!
Monday (4/10): iMedia Brands, The Greenbrier Companies, Tilray
Tuesday (4/11): Albertsons, CarMax, Cognyte, Skillsoft
Wednesday (4/12): Apogee Enterprises, Louis Vuitton (LVMH), Rent the Runway, Sportsman’s Warehouse
Thursday (4/13): Delta, Fastenal, Infosys, Progressive, Washington Federal Bank
Friday (4/14): BlackRock, Citi, JPMorgan Chase, PNC, UnitedHealth Group, Wells Fargo
What We’re Watching:
The financials sector is at a bit of a crossroads. Being down nearly -7% YTD, many are saying to “buy the fear” that has come from banking crisis worries.
However, Seeking Alpha’s quant ratings still rates the XLF ETF as a strong sell. You know that I’m not overly fond of holding bank stock — but maybe that will change if we experience a flash crash?
Our team will be keeping a close eye on how things shape up at the end of this week.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
As is known by the masses — UnitedHealth Group is a BEAST of a stock.
2022 annual results saw revenue of $324.2 billion (+14% YoY), cash flows from operations of $26.2 billion (1.3X net income), and full-year net EPS of $21.18.
Eager to see how 2023 has been treating this company so far!
Investor Events / Global Affairs:
World leaders give economic outlooks from Washington D.C., Apple gets a fresh lawsuit, Central Bank activity could be jumping the gun, and Elon Musk announced a new factory in Shanghai.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB) Meetings
Global finance leaders are set to the meet in Washington D.C. this week for the Spring Meeting of the IMF and WB. During the event, the IMF will release its updated global economic growth forecast.
Last week, the early stages of the meetings featured the following predictions:
The IMF projects that the war will continue to drag on global economics for the next five years.
Global GDP will grow by “around 3%” a year for the next five years, Kristalina Georgieva — managing director of the IMF — said in a speech in Washington on Thursday.
The above growth of ~3% annually for the next five years is the lowest since 1990 and the projections of the IMF continue to be lower ever since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC).
We’ll be giving a full breakdown of what you need to know in the next Week in Review post — available for paying subscribers only.
Apple (AAPL) is Sued by Baidu (BIDU) Over “Chinese ChatGPT”
Chinese search engine Baidu filed lawsuits against Apple and other “relevant app developers” due to fake imitations of its ‘Ernie’ bot — which doesn’t even officially have an app for the App Store yet.
The app, which was launched just last month, can be thought of as China’s quickly-spun-up ChatGPT competitor.
“At present, Ernie does not have any official app… Until our company’s official announcement, any Ernie app you see from App Store or other stores are fake.” — Baidu Leadership
Apple stock fell in response to the news + Friday’s jobs report suggesting further rate hikes.
Keep in mind — Baidu is no small company. The Chinese multinational tech company has a market cap of nearly $48.5B.
Central Bank Activity Around the World
Things to keep an eye on from our banking leadership around the world:
Australia paused key interest rate at 3.6% after 10 hikes. (link)
Bank of Canada expected to hold rates steady once again, even as economy accelerates. (link)
Bank of Japan’s brand new chief says no major rate hike is on the horizon. (link)
“Since the start of the year, central banks have been buffeted by rival forces. Faster China reopening, Europe dodging a downturn, and tight US labor markets all argue for higher rates.
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse pull in the opposite direction. So far, with limited signs of a broader banking crisis, it’s the arguments for tightening that are winning the day.
Peak rates are in sight, but we’re not quite there yet.”
Tesla (TSLA) New Shanghai Factory
Elon Musk announced on Twitter Sunday that Tesla will build a new factory in Shanhai with the aim of assembling 10,000 giant batteries for electric producers / distributors.
The name of the batteries is a “Megapack” and a Tesla’s calculation suggest that a single one can power 3,600 homes for one hour.
“Unlike most battery production, which mainly goes to the electric vehicle market, the Megapack factory will build cells for grid-scale energy storage, a much smaller sector.
There were about 19.3 gigawatt-hours of installed stationary battery storage at the end of 2020, according to the International Energy Agency. That’s likely to grow to more than 150 gigawatt-hours by 2026.
Musk, however, has a much grander vision for the sector, expecting storage to pair with renewable energy to do much of the heavy lifting in decarbonizing electricity and greening industrial sectors.
Tesla’s master plan forecasts about 46,200 gigwatt-hours of stationary battery storage need to be installed in the next 20 years.”
Major Economic Events:
Updated inflation metrics are coming from across the board and we’re interested to see where Consumer Sentiment lands. There seems to be a bit too many people that are “over the recession”…
Monday (4/10): Wholesale Inventories
Tuesday (4/11): NFIB Optimism Index, Speeches by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, & Philadelphia Fed President Harker
Wednesday (4/12): CPI (w/ Core CPI), Fed Meeting Minutes, Speeches by Richmond Fed President Barkin & SF Fed President Daly, Treasury Budget
Thursday (4/13): PPI (w/ Core PPI)
Friday (4/14): Business Inventories, Capacity Utilization, Consumer Sentiment, Import Price Index, Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Speech by Fed Gov. Waller
What We’re Watching:
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Headline CPI (YoY, shown above):
Previous — +6%
Expected — +5.2%
Core CPI (YoY)
Previous — +5.5%
Expected — +5.6%
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Headline PPI (YoY, shown above):
Previous — +4.6%
Expected — +3.0%
Core PPI (YoY):
Previous — +4.4%
Expected — +3.4%
Which stocks moved the most last week.
Our friends at LevelFields scrub through thousands of data points each week to determine how events impact stock prices.
We’re waiting to see what happens to the stock price of Waystar Royco from the big event in last night’s episode of Succession (for those who watch). ;^)
If you’re starting your investing journey or are interested in buying T-bills yielding 5% or more, consider visiting Public.com.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice or recommendation for any investment. The content is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.