Championship Weekend Picks by Grant
Conference Championship Picks ATS & Prop Bets
All Lines are from BetMGM
Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs
To start off the Conference Championship Weekend, we have the AFC Championship. Joe “Brr” and the Bengals are a 7.5-point underdog the night before the game. This is a rather large number not only because it is a playoff game, but it is even more absurd for a conference championship matchup.
The last time these teams matched up, Cincinnati won in a thriller. Their 34-31 win at home against the Chiefs was good enough to catapult them into becoming the AFC North Champions for the first time since 2015.
In that game, Joe Burrow was reminiscent of his LSU days as he and Jamaar Chase went off. Burrow threw for 446 and four scores, and Jamaar Chase caught 266 of those yards for three scores. They will need to be no less than exceptional as the biggest underdog of the weekend.
That same game had Kansas City in the lead for the majority of the game. If they didn’t take their foot off the gas in the second half, they might have blown out the Bengals.
Regardless, we should see a lot of points today. While the total isn’t the number I’m looking at, Jamaar Chase is (again, sorry). His O/U for receiving yards is 86.5, and if trends continue, he should blow by that. Chase has gone over this total for triple digits in the last four games with Burrow (including one against Kansas City). Who on the Chiefs is going to cover this guy?
Looking at the spread, 7.5 points is a lot. I could see the Chiefs winning by more than a touchdown normally, but this is no normal time. In a rematch, the game should be as close as the first (34-31) and I wouldn’t expect someone to get blown out in the AFC Championship Game.
The Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (+7.5) & Jamaar Chase O 86.5 Receiving Yards
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams
Tonight, the 3rd matchup between these divisional rivals will result in the winner getting a trip to the Super Bowl. San Francisco has won the last six against Los Angeles, but this is no ordinary game. Both teams come in on fire, so throw the past matchups out of the window.
San Francisco has been the underdog in every playoff game so far (at Dallas, at Green Bay). That trend will continue as they are a 3.5-point underdog. The Rams have already beat up on a divisional rival in these playoffs (Arizona) and took down Tom Brady last weekend.
Besides that, the Rams are not allowing people who live outside of Los Angeles to get tickets. This comes in an effort to keep 49er fans out of the stadium. Keep in mind, the Titans tried to do the same against the Bengals and you saw what the result was.
With that, you would think I am picking the Niners, but that is not so. I am taking the Rams spread because they are at home, and I think it is Matt Stafford’s chance to shine. In the clutch, I would rather have Matt Stafford than Jimmy Garoppolo.
That being said about Stafford, he will need to find his best receiver. Cooper Kupp has been unbelievable this season, and that has spilled over into the postseason. He has scored in both of the playoff games, and he went for 183 yards last week. Expect this scoring trend to continue as my prop bet for this game is a Cooper Kupp anytime touchdown (-125). Not only has he scored in both of the playoff games, but he has scored in each of the last four games.
The Pick: Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) & Cooper Kupp anytime touchdown (-125)